Mistakes are never small in the network
world. They may be quickly forgotten or swept under the rug, but
they are never small.
Here we take a look at a number of developments chronicled - OK,
hyped - in Network World during the past 15 years that have
flopped like so many dead fish. It's not pretty.
Few times in the history of flops has a movement come and, well,
been kicked into submission so quickly. A study released in January
said that 210 don't-com firms were shuttered in 2000 - 121 between
October and December alone.
The study went on to say of the dot-com deaths, about 75% offered
products or services primarily for a consumer audience. Another
21% had a business clientele, and the remainder had a blend.
E-commerce companies accounted for just more than half the closures.
Content-based properties made up 30%, while infrastructure and online
service companies made up the remainder.
The study's author, Webmergers.com, reports that between 12,000 and
15,000 dot-comers lost their jobs. Of course, there are thousands
of dot-coms left - some successful - but their failure rate in the
past year and a half is unprecedented. For now, that alone earns them
a spot on this list.
Telecommunications Act of 1996
Many are still arguing over its impact, but we'd have to say this
act has been a failure. Does anyone remember what this legislation
was supposed to accomplish? Let us remind you. The act was supposed
to:
Open local service to competition.
Let regional Bell operating companies provide long-distance
service.
Deregulate certain cable rates.
Let local telephone companies sell video services.
Protect Universal Service.
Change broadcast ownership rules.
Of those six major points, only Universal Service has succeeded. Local
competition is a joke. RBOC long-distance - with the exception of
Verizon (in one state) and SBC Communications - is another laugh-riot.
Since the act, competition in general has taken a huge hit with all
the mergers and acquisitions (four of the original seven Baby Bells
no longer exist). Even what many considered to be the big carrot of
the act - the ability to sell long-distance - is no longer a draw
because of lower rates (maybe the only good thing to come out of all
this). One analyst sized it up this way: "The Telecom Act didn't open
floodgates as envisioned."
APPNWhat
would a "flops" section be without a bloated and failed IBM plan?
Pretty much everything IBM's networking group did (in one iteration
or another) in the late '80s and throughout the '90s is already dead,
is being phased out, or is owned by Cisco. Perhaps no technology flamed
as vividly as Advanced Peer-to-Peer Networking. Why, we remember like
it was only yesterday talking about the quintessential strengths of
APPN, its peer-to-peer networking capabilities, its sophisticated
class-of-service features . . . all shot to hell.
IBM did just about everything wrong here. It made APPN gear complicated
and costly (it even wanted royalties from potential third parties
that could have helped establish the technology, remember that?).
APPN's role did bring about one of the great industry squabbles. At
one point in 1994, IBM's Rick McGee, promised to "kill" vendors (read:
Cisco) and "eat our own young" before IBM would let any rival cannibalize
its mainframe channel-attached SNA segment of the network. Ouch.
25M bit/sec ATM to the desktop
Classified mostly as a solution looking for a problem, 25M bit/sec
ATM to the desktop failed before it really got rolling. While many
folks thought the idea of providing all that bandwidth to user PCs
was worthwhile, the idea of paying twice as much for the luxury compared
with switched Ethernet didn't fly. It wasn't the last technology Ethernet
would whack of course (see HSTR and FDDI).
High-Speed Token Ring
This technology took a called strike three in the bottom of the ninth
with two outs and the bases loaded. Token ring in general by the late
'90s was suffering from years of battles with Ethernet. High-Speed
Token Ring (HSTR) was supposed to be the last hurrah, but it just
never happened. One of our readers summed up HSTR this way: "End users
failed to rally around HSTR, and the token-ring vendors are basically
giving up." To say the least. By the end of 1998, HSTR's champion,
IBM, pulled the plug. Madge and Olicom did the same soon after.
FDDI
Once the fashion plate of high-speed LAN users, 100M bit/sec fiber-optic
gear has run out of gas. More to the point, faster and less-expensive
technologies - such as Gigabit and Fast Ethernet - have supplanted
it. Most of the last FDDI chips shipped in January 2000.
DMECan
you say "overambitious management standards initiative?" Lots of folks
did. The Open Software Foundation's Distributed Management Environment
(OSF/DME) died a slow death in the early '90s. Still, DME's death
and legacy hasn't prevented vendors from trying to come up with other
cross-industry standards. Oh, no. Can you say Web-Based Enterprise
Management (WBEM)? By no means a flop just yet, WBEM has some 70 vendors
behind it promising a new breed of Web-based tools. We may be writing
about his one flopping in our 20th anniversary issue.
OSI
We'd be remiss not to highlight one of the all-time great failures
of this industry: Open Systems Interconnection. You may recall that
OSI was a set of standards for creating truly interoperable multivendor
systems and networking.
It never happened. Oh, the OSI seven-layer model is a reference tool,
but products really tanked and users yawned.
DCE
More proof that big, ugly architecturelike movements generally fail.
The Distributed Computing Environment (DCE) consisted of directory,
security, remote procedure calls and other client/server-based services
designed to run across heterogeneous networks. It sounded good and
even garnered some user acceptance. But rather than creating a community
of interoperable applications, DCE technology essentially "became
a collection of proprietary platforms with a common heritage," as
one analyst put it.
They said it, all right and some might regret it
Human
beings are not blessed with the ability to predict the
future. If we were, we'd all make a killing off those
office basketball pools. Predictions can be a source of
great amusement, though. Below is a collection of the
funny and dead-on.
On
Microsoft:
"I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating
system, and possibly program, of all time. As the successor
to DOS, which has over 10 million systems in use, it creates
incredible opportunities for everyone involved with PCs."
- Bill Gates, chairman, Microsoft, 1988
On
ATM to the desktop:
"The 25M bit/sec ATM market still has far too many evangelists
and not enough practicing mechanics. But 1996 will be
the year 25M bit/sec products out-ship other ATM technologies,
like 155M bit/sec adapters." - Thomas Nolle, president,
CIMI Corp., spring 1995
"It
seems like an answer to a question that nobody's asked.
I haven't seen any driving need for slow ATM as opposed
to fast or switched Ethernet." - Bert Manfredi, senior
engineer, U.S. Navy, spring 1995
On
Y2K:
"My pool holds 15,000 gallons of chlorinated water. I
will have full gas tanks and enough cash, milk, bread,
peanut butter and vegetables to last a month. After that,
if things are bad I'm going to start walking out of the
desert because if infrastructure fails, I'm not going
to stay in Phoenix." - Steve Blass, network architect,
Sprint Enterprise Network Services
On
the 'Net culture:
"Internet Explorer: It's nice, but no Netscape killer."
Adam Gaffin, Network World review, February
1996
"During
my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative
in creating the Internet." Al Gore, former vice
president, March 1999