Y2K predictions
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Network World: On a scale of 1 to 10, how bad will Y2K be, with 1 being no problems at all and 10 being the end of the world as we know it?
McNamara: Exactly 3.14159.
Blass: Overall, about a 4. U.S. consumers will feel about a 2 or 3. Organizations with large international supply chains will feel about a 6.
Briere: A 2, with little real impact in the global scheme of things.
Bradner: U.S. - 1.6; Europe - 2.5; Asia - 4.25; Africa and South America - 5.5.
Gibbs: Perhaps a 1, but probably 1/2.
NW: What will happen on Jan. 1, 2000?
McNamara: Even more so than on the typical New Year's Day, look for people to stay the heck home . . . presuming the electricity and cable TV still work. Those who do wander outside will likely be queuing up at their neighborhood ATMs, not necessarily to withdraw money, but just to make sure the things still work. A week later, all but an unlucky few will be back to cursing the winter weather and wondering what all that Y2K fuss was about.
Blass: Lots of power outages due to drunk drivers on New Year's Eve will fuel Y2K hysteria. A number of ATM machines and store credit card swipers will need to be replaced. Markets with one or two grocery suppliers at the wholesale level could be in serious trouble. Lots of flights will be late - unrelated maybe, but it will fuel the talk.
Lots of bills will be incorrect; some will be noticed. Every bonehead on the planet will pick up the phone at midnight, and the phone system will struggle. Lots of unbacked-up PCs are going to die a quiet death in people's houses. Most company PCs have been fixed or at least backed up. And lots of lawyers will make lots of money.
Kearns: Initial panic as problems occur in Asia and Eastern Europe (where the date changes earlier than here), which should settle down by the time the first football game kicks off and people realize their lives won't be disrupted very much. Organizations that do experience computer problems will simply turn them off and do the work manually.
Bradner: I expect some burps in the power grid over the first few hours and days. Then bugs pop up over the next few weeks in the U.S. Elsewhere, there could be significant power and utility outages.
McClimans: The most significant event on Jan. 1, 2000 will be the failure of the telephone and Internet infrastructure. It won't be due to any real failure but rather to the flood of telephone calls and hits to CNN.com to check on everybody else around the world. There will most likely be some areas where older utility infrastructures fail - perhaps seriously for some - and it is reasonable to assume that a very large and concerted effort may have to be undertaken on the part of the government/National Guard to help restore power, provide heating and food.
Rohde: My concern in the telecom world is less the day after than the month after. There have been a lot of reports coming out reassuring everyone that there will be dial tone on Jan. 1. Whoop-de-doo. The real question at this point is what will voice and data services bills say at the end of the month?
NW: Would you fly on New Year's Eve?
McNamara: I would fly on any commercial flight.
Blass: I won't fly for any price after Dec. 20 until Jan. 1, 2000, and after that I will do my best to stay on the ground until March.
Briere: Sure, I'd fly.
Gibbs: No. I won't even brave the highways on New Year's Eve.
McClimans: I'm not worried about flying. The place I wouldn't want to be on New Year's Eve is stuck in the New York City subway system.
NW: Are you stocking up for Y2K?
McNamara: Actually, I may keep some extra cash on hand, not for any particular reason, rather just because it's easy to do, and I'd feel silly if there was a societal breakdown and I had no pocket money with which to bribe black marketers.
Blass: My pool holds 15,000 gallons of chlorinated water. I will have full gas tanks and enough cash, milk, bread, peanut butter and vegetables to last a month. After that, if things are bad I'm going to start walking out of the desert because if infrastructure fails, I'm not going to stay in Phoenix.
Briere: I already have an automatic generator for electricity, and we stock up regularly because who has time to shop anymore?
Rohde: At the last minute, I bet we experience a miniseizure of panic and get some extra water, even though right now we're laughing at people who talk about it.
NW: What will be the one thing that companies will have done wrong?
Blass: The wrong move was throwing away the opportunity to implement serious asset, configuration and change management.Kearns: Most companies spent too much money patching old COBOL code rather than scrapping it in favor of new code.
Briere: They let it happen to begin with. They should have anticipated this.
Rohde: Failed to get foreign counterparts to work on this problem early enough.
NW: What's the one thing they will have done right?
Kearns: Fortunately, companies chose to purchase new hardware.
Bradner: Set up contingency plans on what to do if a problem pops up.
Gibbs: Reviewed and analyzed their systems and architecture, which for many of them was likely to have been the first time ever.
McClimans: Providing all that extra work for retired coders.
NW: If you could be anywhere when the clock strikes midnight, where would it be? (And would you have any weapons with you?)
Blass: With my family in my home, and yes, the gun over the mantle is loaded.
Kearns: I'll be at home, where I always am and where I want to be. And, no, I won't be armed.
Bradner: At home without weapons.
McClimans: My plan is to spend the evening at home, with some very close friends, listening to Bob Marley (on a battery-operated CD player) in front of a wood-burning fireplace with several Glock 9mm's, a few 12-gauge antiriot shotguns, a couple of long-range AR-10 and 15s, and plenty of beer.
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