DSL Forum: Profitability around the corner

By Michael Martin
Network World, 07/30/01

DSL providers and equipment suppliers have been in the news a lot lately. Unfortunately, the news hasn't been good. Network World Senior Writer Michael Martin recently spoke with Bill Rody, head of the DSL Forum, a nonprofit group that promotes DSL technology.

What is the role of the DSL forum?

We're an industry advocacy group that is organized under the antitrust law, and we come together to advance the cause of DSL and try to remove any obstacles to the mass marketing of DSL services and products.

How would you describe the state of DSL right now?

DSL is experiencing strong growth in spite of the general turndown in the telecommunications market. We just ended a quarter where we managed to double the installed base in the last six months. We're seeing a very aggressive deployment happening globally. We now have an installed base of more than 10 million global customers. So we're very encouraged by what's going on.

How much has the reputation of DSL as a technology been damaged by the problems of competitive local exchange carriers [CLEC]?

It goes without argument that some members of the financial community have been looking at DSL with a harsh eye because of the failure of a few high-profile data CLECs. But the fact is that incumbents and CLECs are offering DSL and are still having trouble keeping up with the demand. We're seeing penetration all over the U.S. For example, SBC is putting in more than 14,000 new DSL customers every week. So I would say that some of the bad press we've had in the financial community will turn around as soon as they start seeing the profits show up in some of the [independent local exchange carriers] and CLECs.

When do you think they might start seeing those profits?

Immediately. You'll also see some services offered, which will help push the revenues. In the next year you'll see voice over DSL, you'll see videoconferencing come back, and we will see video on demand blazing back into the DSL space.

How is DSL faring in comparison to cable and broadband wireless services?

Globally, DSL is running ahead of competitors in a month-by-month installed-base comparison. In the U.S., it's been a tough race between cable and DSL. DSL started a little over a year late and has been trying to catch up ever since. We're very encouraged by some of the installation rates that are beginning to happen. Down the road I think wireless broadband delivery systems could become an excellent way to get broadband service. I don't think they are today, but in the future as some of the technology become more stable and they figure out how to get some better upstream bandwidth, I think it could become a serious threat.

Driving DSL forward

Some facts on DSL forum:

• Members: More than 400, including euipment suppliers and service providers.

• Goal: To help DSL become a mass market technology.

• Tasks: Interoperability testing and providing input to standard bodies.

Are there new DSL standards or technologies we should be keeping our eyes open for?

Most recently we have published technical reports on flow-through provisioning, on autoconfiguration and on [Common Object Request Broker Architecture]. . . . We've published reports that show telephone companies how to install DSL faster and move towards a retail-market model as interoperability efforts begin to incorporate some of these recommendations.

Also, the [International Telecommunications Union] has standardized on synchronous high-speed DSL, and it's rapidly moving through the ANSI standards process. At DSL Forum, we have a working group, and we are looking at bringing end-to-end [symmetrical high-density DSL] networks into play that will unlock the in-home business.

When do you think we might see SHDSL out there in a big way?

There will be trials through the balance of this year with deployment starting next year.

What do you think it will take to get DSL to the point where it is a mass-market technology that consumers can just go and buy from Radio Shack?

We really need to have the world's suppliers come together and produce interoperable products. That way you could go to your local consumer electronics store and just like you use a dial-up modem, you'd be able to use a DSL modem. There's work to be done, but based on what we hear from our membership, they're supporting this.

But this isn't on the horizon?

I wouldn't promise it for this Christmas, but certainly great strides are being made. On a regional basis, interoperability is happening. On a national basis, there's still work to do.