More predictions this issue, but we head to the great white north (Calgary) for these from Hitachi-ID's CTO, Idan Shoham. Interestingly, Idan hedges his bet with this disclaimer: "I'm more engineer than gambler, so I predict that half of these will come true (but I don't predict which half)."
What Shoham does have to say is:
"The intersection of cloud computing and IAM (identity and access management) will continue to be a hot topic of discussion, but close to nothing will get deployed, because many scenarios either don't make much sense or are harder to implement in reality than the glossy brochures might suggest."
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Idan's written a white paper that tries to enumerate every possible scenario for IAM and the cloud and indicates what's good and bad about each.
He continues with the prognostications:
• "Privileged password management will continue to be a growth business. Given its growing functional scope, people will continue to randomly refer to this space by various names - privileged account management, privileged access management, privileged id management and shared account password management. All of these names will continue to be unsatisfactory."
• "More and more federation will be used to authenticate and authorize logins into SaaS apps. This turns out to be the killer application for federation. The folks behind WS-Federation will concede defeat and declare SAML the winning protocol. (OK, maybe not)"
• "OTP tokens will continue to decline, in favor of soft tokens, mobile-phones-as-tokens and other less costly technologies. People will start talking about how to replace smart cards with a mobile phone-based solution."
• "Customers still want ‘plug and play' user provisioning. Vendors still haven't figured out how to do that, and this won't change in 2011."
Looking back over these, more than half are predicting what won't happen in 2011. While those can be easy to put down on paper, they're also the easiest to prove wrong. But, then, Idan was never shy about taking a risk. (did I mention he lives in Calgary?)
Come back next issue for even more predictions.