As has been our custom for over a decade, it’s time for our annual predictions on what will happen in the coming year for Unified Communications (UC). We’ll start with what is a clear 2014 trend that will continue in 2015: the growing adoption of cloud-based UC.
Most cloud providers have reported double-digit growth this year of their IP Telephony (IPT) and UC portfolios, while premise-based systems growth remains in the high single digits year-over-year. We attribute this to both to the adoption of stand-alone cloud services, plus the adoption of cloud-based UC as a hybrid solution that also includes premise-based components. We expect to see continued UC endpoint growth as organizations move beyond simple IPT, especially in hybrid solutions that integrate cloud-based UC with private IPT systems.
Both end users and IT organizations continue to become more comfortable with a mobile device or softphone as an IPT endpoint, and we expect that trend to continue, although many users will cling to their desktop phones for years to come.
Another 2014 trend that will accelerate is the proliferation of Voice over LTE (VoLTE) in the U. S. market. AT&T and Verizon network adoption of VoLTE will be especially noteworthy in 2015, as these two carriers move to eventually retire their 3G voice network—providing consumers and business customers with wideband (high-definition) voice and increased compatibility/interoperability with video and other collaboration media. VoLTE acceleration will also help as a prerequisite for replacing the legacy PSTN for carriers who maintain both wired and wireless networks.
The PSTN will continue a steady march toward retirement as AT&T and Verizon lay the groundwork to replace their legacy switching with an all-IP network. AT&T plans to retire its TDM and SS7 infrastructures by 2020. We expect that AT&T and Verizon will still need a host of gateways in 2020 to interconnect with other carriers that aren’t as aggressive with full-scale replacement within the next five years, so the network planners will be very busy with internal projects and interconnect proposals for an orderly transition.
Next time, we’ll cover some other UC news, and then return in 2015 after the holidays with part two of our predictions.