Yesterday, I wrote that "Nearly one-third of all IT infrastructure spending is now devoted to cloud." That sounded like a lot, but IDC, the source for those numbers, is now saying that's only the beginning.
According to the research firm's latest announcement, cloud IT infrastructure spending is expected to grow 15.6% a year and represent 46.5% of the total IT infrastructure spending in 2019, with the public cloud grabbing the lion's share.
How do we get there from today's situation, where cloud IT infrastructure accounts for almost 30% of infrastructure spending, up from 26.4% just a year ago?
It's relatively easy when you combine the magic of compound growth in the cloud with falling sales for non-cloud infrastructure. Yep, while cloud spending is predicted to top $54 billion in 2019, non-cloud IT infrastructure spending is expected to fall 1.4% per year.
The overall numbers are huge: cloud infrastructure spending is expected to hit $33.4 billion this year, accounting for a third of all IT infrastructure spending (up from 28.1% in 2014). Spending on non-cloud IT infrastructure, meanwhile, will remain flat at $67 billion. Even more impressive, by 2019, cloud IT infrastructure spending will hit $54.6 billion. (IDC didn't give a total, and while I wasn't a math major, I calculated a total 2019 IT infrastructure market value of approximately $119 billion, which leaves non-cloud spending at about $64.4 billion.) Importantly, by growing 16.5% a year vs. 14% for private clouds, the public cloud comes to dominate cloud spending in 2019: $35.3 billion vs. $19.2 billion for private cloud implementations.
Careful readers of TechWatch may know that to me, the so-called "private cloud" is a bit of an oxymoron, so I see the public cloud's continued ascendance as further validation of the cloud model.
"The breadth and width of cloud offerings only continue to grow, with an increasing universe of business- and consumer-oriented solutions being born in the cloud and/or served better by the cloud. This growing demand from the end user side and expansion of cloud-based offerings from service providers will continue to fuel growth in spending on the underlying IT infrastructure in the foreseeable future."
Basically, the cloud is winning, and its margin of victory just keeps growing.