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All Linux vendors need to do to break Microsoft's death grip on the desktop is unravel a few chicken-or-the-egg type mysteries.

Which comes first? Widespread demand for Linux operating systems preloaded on PCs, or hardware manufacturers anxious to do the loading? The latter are as scarce as hen's teeth today.

Which comes first? Confidence among would-be converts that Linux application support - for the apps they need most - soon will approach that of Windows? Or a developer community that sees enough demand to make that support happen? Too many developers put all their apps in one basket as things stand.

None of which means desktop Linux isn't creating a buzz - witness the major product development and marketing commitments from IBM, Novell, Sun and Red Hat. The penguin recently waddled past Apple's Mac OS into second place in the desktop operating system market, according to IDC. However, second place means a 3% share, which IDC only sees rising to 6% come 2007. But progress is progress, the Linux advocates say.

Besides, those figures don't paint a true picture, says Bill Weinberg, open source architecture specialist for Open Source Development Labs (OSDL), an industry consortium dedicated to advancing the cause. Market surveys account only for commercial desktop Linux and not myriad free downloads and installs, leading some to peg what IDC calls 3% at anywhere from three to 12 times higher. Weinberg says he believes "the truth is somewhere in the middle."

Where the floor is today and where the ceiling may be tomorrow are matters of great debate for those who follow Linux.

The breakout dilemma

"It's unclear to what degree Linux will ever displace Windows so long as it's merely a cheaper but almost as good alternative - which is how it's generally positioned today," says Gordon Haff, a senior analyst at Illuminata. "The breakout would be to deliver a Linux-based desktop system that was compellingly better than Windows in function, look and feel, or some other dimension." However, Haff adds, such a breakout advancement also could prove a challenge for Linux vendors because it would entail new training.