Will 3G kill WAP?
By Julie Bort
Network World, 09/11/00
Even if the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) becomes the most pristine protocol ever developed, its enterprise use hinges on bigger cellular pipes. Then again, when pipes get bigger (and devices stronger), why will we need skinny, difficult WAP at all?
These are just a few of the eddies swirling around the International Telecommunication Union's (ITU) Third Generation Networks (3G) standard, a hype pot in its own right. The ITU's effort, called IMT-2000, will give cell users data speeds of up to 384K bit/sec. That's more than six times faster than dial-up and fat enough for most Web surfers' needs. The problem is in the 12 years since the ITU began working on 3G, three flavors of cellular technology grew up. These are Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA), GSM and Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA). Of course, carriers and equipment makers of the three flavors are each pushing for their own to become IMT-2000's underlying technology.
CDMA is Qualcomm's baby. The technically similar TDMA claims wireless icons including AT&T Wireless, BellSouth, Nokia, SBC Communications and others. GSM is the system deployed in Europe, but AT&T PCS also uses GSM in the U.S., as does Pacific Bell, Voicestream and about two dozen other carriers.
Needless to say, with all of the politics involved among these players, the landscape for 3G is confusing. Most vendors won't take one hop to get there but will deploy interim data access technology, known as 2.5G. The TDMA camp is working with the GSM camp to develop a 2.5G system to which carriers in both camps can migrate. It's known as Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution.
Licensees of Qualcomm's technology are pushing for a 3G standard that looks more like CDMA. Their 3G choice is CDMA2000. Now that GSM and TDMA operators have a merged migration path, it's likely that those operators will favor a competing 3G standard, known as Wideband CDMA.
And the ITU is currently hashing out other proposals for 384K bit/sec pipes. Few analysts believe that one 3G network will become a standard in the U.S. However, the ITU is still trying to meet 3G promises of worldwide roaming. Should competing standards emerge for high-bandwidth data - as looks likely - the ITU will move the battle to getting those networks to communicate with one another.
The wireless world
In the meantime, Europe and Asia are widely considered to be further along in all things wireless than the U.S., including the wireless Web and 3G implementations. Both regions could see 3G choices as early as 2002, vs. 2004 in the U.S., says the Strategis Group, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C.
From an adoption point of view, Japan is the farthest along when it comes to wireless Web, thanks to the immense popularity of Japan' NTT DoCoMo I-Mode service. I-Mode has more than 13,000 sites serving 94 million subscribers as of August and is adding about 400,000 per week.
But some analysts say wireless superiority doesn't equal Internet superiority.
"The U.S. is not behind Europe. The reason Europe seems ahead in wireless services is that it doesn't have the penetration of PCs and infrastructure that we have here. If you look at the overall bucket of technology, the fact that they are using wireless is a 'so what?' We really have the most functionality," says Darryl Sterling, senior analyst for Mainspring Communications, a market research firm in Cambridge, Mass. Europe standardized on GSM technology early, which gave its first days of deployment a leg up. While the U.S. was dealing with interoperability problems (phones and service providers, hand-offs and coverage areas), Europe was not.
As 3G and 2.5G gain, some say Europe's success has become problematic. Europe may not have the available spectrum needed for 3G without massive network overhauls, says Chris Pearson, a spokesman for the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium, a TDMA vendor group in Bellevue, Wash. "But most U.S. service providers say we can put 3G in our existing spectrum," he adds.
Pearson believes 3G service in the U.S. will become widely available by late 2001 to early 2002. Full 3G may arrive a year later in Europe; 2.5 is rolling out there now, he says.
But 3G or not, Europe seems more willing to bank on wireless, including WAP-based enterprise applications. So network executives monitoring the progress of WAP in the enterprise should be looking across both ponds for early adopters acting as examples.
Which brings us back to WAP's future in two years, when the pipe is no longer small. If devices solve their computing and battery issues while continuing to shrink in size, WAP could become obsolete. But that's not likely, contends James Kobielus, an analyst with The Burton Group and
Network World's "Above the Cloud" columnist.
"WAP will evolve. In a couple of years' time, we'll be surprised by what WAP can do. It will be central to the whole Web," Kobielus predicts. The sure sign of its success, he adds, will be if WAP is folded into a World Wide Web Consortium or Internet Engineering Task Force standard.
Back to main story
Why skinny content will make you outsource
Hype machine in full throttle
