Welcome to 2005! Because nothing of major importance tends to happen over the year-end holidays, this first-of-the-year column traditionally is given over to predictions for the year to come. First, let's look back at last year's predictions to see how well I did. There were five:

1. Microsoft will step up activity on the legal front.

It did, but I thought it'd be involved in more litigation. Instead, it's done its best to put legal problems behind it (for example, settlements with Sun and Novell). I claim half-credit as obviously the polarity of my crystal ball was reversed.

2. Expect huge losses and major changes in management and direction at The SCO Group.

Another partial credit. The huge losses have certainly occurred - it's doubtful it could last another year at the current pace unless there's a huge infusion of cash from somewhere. Not only is management going to be looking for a place to land soon, but the entire company could simply disappear.

3. Linux will become firmly entrenched in the enterprise server room.

The open source operating system has gotten a toe hold in the server room and is making steady progress. It might be too early to say "entrenched," but I'll give myself credit anyway.

4. Privacy and user control of their own data will be the major topics.

I might have been premature here, as regulatory compliance continues to be the driving force for identity management projects. But privacy and user control have gotten the lion's share of discussion around the virtual water cooler.

5. I saw 2004 as being the biggest year yet for politics and the Internet.

Nailed that one, didn't I?

Final score, approximately 3.67 out of 5.

Now, my fearless forecast for 2005:

Novell's Open Enterprise Server will surpass sales expectations. But a few minor but nagging problems will keep it from being a total success.

Microsoft, with no new operating systems due, will hammer heavily on licensing issues (looking very much like subscriptions) to try to even out the revenue stream.

As the economy picks up, so too will merger and acquisition activity, especially in the identity management market. Look for a half-dozen well-known companies to be assimilated this year.

Linux on the desktop finally will become a reasonable alternative to Windows for mainline business organizations.