Eye on 2009: Telecom predictions for the New Year

Last week we looked at how well the Eye of the Carrier predictions held up for 2008. This week, let's peer into the crystal ball for 2009. You'll notice a few similarities — and a couple of key changes — for this year:

* Unified communications VoIP applications emerge. Companies that rolled out VoIP in 2008 or before are beginning to take advantage of the full power of IP-enabled communications. Look for applications such as IP contact centers and presence-enabled messaging to go mainstream. How will we know? Track players such as Aspect Software, which specialize in IP contact centers. And look for new providers to emerge (yes, even in this market).

* Carrier Ethernet takes center stage. For the first time in years, there's a real challenge to the dominance of Layer 3 MPLS in the WAN. Enterprises are turning in unprecedented numbers to carrier Ethernet services, driven primarily by ease of use and lower cost-per-Mbit/s. About 87% of enterprises that have tried it say they expect to purchase more in 2009. The only drawback so far is availability. How will we tell if carrier Ethernet's winning? Look for success by players such as Masergy (one of the earliest deployers of carrier Ethernet), and check for unexpected wins by Verizon (which promotes carrier Ethernet aggressively) against AT&T (which offers carrier Ethernet, but is still milking its MPLS cash cow).

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Last week we looked at how well the Eye of the Carrier predictions held up for 2008. This week, let's peer into the crystal ball for 2009. You'll notice a few similarities — and a couple of key changes — for this year:

* Unified communications VoIP applications emerge. Companies that rolled out VoIP in 2008 or before are beginning to take advantage of the full power of IP-enabled communications. Look for applications such as IP contact centers and presence-enabled messaging to go mainstream. How will we know? Track players such as Aspect Software, which specialize in IP contact centers. And look for new providers to emerge (yes, even in this market).

* Carrier Ethernet takes center stage. For the first time in years, there's a real challenge to the dominance of Layer 3 MPLS in the WAN. Enterprises are turning in unprecedented numbers to carrier Ethernet services, driven primarily by ease of use and lower cost-per-Mbit/s. About 87% of enterprises that have tried it say they expect to purchase more in 2009. The only drawback so far is availability. How will we tell if carrier Ethernet's winning? Look for success by players such as Masergy (one of the earliest deployers of carrier Ethernet), and check for unexpected wins by Verizon (which promotes carrier Ethernet aggressively) against AT&T (which offers carrier Ethernet, but is still milking its MPLS cash cow).

* Video keeps coming on strong. With travel restrictions in full force at most companies through at least June, look for firms that have invested in video and telepresence technologies to start using it — and look for others to make the investment (economy permitting). How to tell? Check out performance of the videoconferencing offerings of players such as Cisco, HP, Nortel and Polycom — and services from players such as AT&T, Masergy and others.

* Outsourcing continues apace. Yes, it was a trend in 2008 — but it will continue through 2009 (and very likely, beyond). Whether services like cloud computing, or more basic hosted and managed services for anything from VoIP to data centers, various flavors of outsourcing continue to remain strong. Check out bellwether Equnix to see how well this prediction pans out.

* Virtualization drives WAN architecture changes. The past few years have seen unprecedented deployment of server and desktop virtualization, along with data center consolidation. The net result is to make computing services more heavily reliant on the WAN than ever — driving investment in backbone and branch-office services. Look for new gear in the branch (application optimization plus WAN acceleration) as well as continued uptake of highly-reliable, high-performance services in the backbone. How to tell? Check out the financial performance of WAN optimization gearmakers, and the enterprise data divisions of carriers (both the big guys and emerging alternative players).

* Wireless deployment continues. I don't foresee as sharp an uptick in expenditures as we've experienced over the past 12 months, but look for enterprises to continue investing in wireless and mobility solutions, and the business case for these products and services continue to become more compelling.