Book of Odds opens eyes to new probabilities

You're more likely to be killed by a vending machine than a shark, say the researchers behind a soon-to-debut, semantic-based Web start-up called Book of Odds. And, they add, you're more likely to die falling out of bed than win the lottery.

Of course, mileage varies if you're a vending machine repairman, a camera operator for Shark Week or always sleep on the floor, but the idea behind this collection of 500,000 (and growing) odds statements "isn't to determine personal probabilities," says company founder Amram Shapiro. "It's much more valuable in the aggregate."

From the company's homepage, www.bookofodds.com, which features a short quiz you can take to get a feel for the content: "Book of Odds will cover a wide range of topics including health, crime, politics, accidents, and relationships. Its consistent format will make it easy to understand. Any one odds statement may be used to better grasp another – the unfamiliar made more comprehensible by the familiar."

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You're more likely to be killed by a vending machine than a shark, say the researchers behind a soon-to-debut, semantic-based Web start-up called Book of Odds. And, they add, you're more likely to die falling out of bed than win the lottery.

Of course, mileage varies if you're a vending machine repairman, a camera operator for Shark Week or always sleep on the floor, but the idea behind this collection of 500,000 (and growing) odds statements "isn't to determine personal probabilities," says company founder Amram Shapiro. "It's much more valuable in the aggregate."

From the company's homepage, www.bookofodds.com, which features a short quiz you can take to get a feel for the content: "Book of Odds will cover a wide range of topics including health, crime, politics, accidents, and relationships. Its consistent format will make it easy to understand. Any one odds statement may be used to better grasp another – the unfamiliar made more comprehensible by the familiar."

Each odds statement will carry a "confidence level" notation derived from an assessment of the quality of the underlying data, Shapiro says.

Three years in the making, privately funded Book of Odds is expected to launch Oct. 14 but right now requires a username and password I'm not allowed to share.

Here's a sample of what's there, though: "Today's Odds Couple: The odds a man showers at least once a day are 1 in 1.43 (US, 10/2003) … The odds a woman showers at least once a day are 1 in 1.75 (US, 10/2003)."

Glad we cleared that one up.

What prompted the idea for this site?

"We felt that we could not only fill an important need, we suspected that it would be really, really fun," Shapiro says.

Before founding Book of Odds, Shapiro was a director at Arthur D. Little. The company employs 20 and expects to derive revenue from a number of sources, advertising being primary among them.

Here are some more sample odds statements via the company's Twitter account:

The odds an accidental death will be due to a fall down stairs are 1 in 68.41.

Odds an adult using a public restroom was observed not washing their hands are 1 in 4.37.

It's more likely that a pilot or crew member has nodded off during a flight than it is for a child to live with two parents.

As for the odds this site will be interesting and fun? I'm putting that at 1:1.

Odds the company will be a success? We'll need more data.

Half of iPhone owners would drop AT&T

We knew already of the widespread dissatisfaction with AT&T among iPhone owners, but there's something to be said for attaching reliable numbers to conventional wisdom.

According to a CFI Group Smartphone Satisfaction Study released last week: 50% of iPhone customers would like to switch providers; 40% of iPhone users switched providers just to get the iPhone in the first place; satisfaction with AT&T is lower among those who were forced to switch than it is among those who did not have to switch (64 vs. 72 on the CFI scale); and, iPhone customers are less satisfied with AT&T than are the carrier's other smartphone users (69 vs. 73).

Meanwhile, the iPhone remains more popular than cold beer at a picnic.

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