NetQoS is offering a free tool, the NetQoS Latency Calculator to help network engineers ensure application performance across the WAN.
The company claims this tool allows you to model network latency under a number of different scenarios. It models a client-server environment, where both client and server are attached to local area networks, and each network is attached to a router. The clientside and server-side routers are attached through some kind of wide area link. To calculate latency times, the tool also lets you input arbitrary request and response sizes, and lets you set delays for the client itself, claims NetQoS.
NetQoS Latency Calculator Screenshot:
Then, to model the WAN portion of the connection, you can set router latency, wide area link speed and distance for each of a pair of routers. On the server side, you can set server latency and response size. You can then click the Calculate button to produce response latency and request latency values, with accompanying pie charts to show how overall delay breaks across the various input values provided. You can also use the input data to produce a WAN bar chart that helps model variable data rates for frame relay or constant bit rates on T1 links, claims NetQoS.
 "The latency calculator will tell you how long it would take to do an FTP transfer with different size files, for example,” said Bill Alderson - creator of the calculator and Technology Consulting Officer for NetQoS. "The calculator counts the number of round trips that are required and you can make the size whatever you’d like. Instead of having a packet size with a 1500 or an 8000 byte MTU maximum, you can simply crank in a 450GB file, and it’ll tell you how long it’ll take to serialize that file across the links you have selected." |
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Terry Slattery the founder of Netcordia brought to my attention an interesting tool called the Paris traceroute that was developed by students and professors with funding from the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Paris. According to the tool's Web site, Paris traceroute addresses some of the limitations of traceroute, the well-known network diagnosis and measurement tool.
According to the developers, Paris traceroute addresses problems caused by load balancers with the initial implementation of traceroute. Traceroute fails in the presence of routers that employ load balancing on packet header fields, say the developers. Paris traceroute, by controling packet header contents, obtains a more precise picture of the actual routes that packets follow, the developers claim.
Perhaps the following taken from the Paris traceroute site will help pique your curiosity to learn more...
A brief demonstration of Paris traceroute's skills:
Suppose above you are trying to measure the route between Src and Dst. The true router topology is shown on the left. L is a router that balances load on two paths, via routers A or C. The middle of the figure shows what you might see with classic traceroute. The right part is what you would get with Paris traceroute...
Traceroute's deficiencies under load balancing:
In the example above, L is a load balancer at hop 1 from the traceroute source. The true router topology from hops 1 through 4 is shown on the left. Routers are represented as circles and each of their interfaces is numbered. Also shown are the probe packets sent with TTL 1 to 4. The packets are depicted as yellow arrows, either above the topology, if L directs them to A, or below, if L directs them to B. At the right side, the topology is presented that would be inferred given these probe packets.
Summary of the IP, UDP, and ICMP header fields that are used by load balancers, classic traceroute, and Paris traceroute:
Above are the IP, UDP and ICMP headers. Per-flow load balancers use the grey fields to identify a flow. Red arrows show the fields incremented by classic traceroute. Paris traceroute uses the green fields to identify probes.
Have YOU used the Paris traceroute tool or come across other improvements on traceroute to share?
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With Cisco this year having made only a fraction of the number of acquisitions it made last year, the networking giant looks poised to pick up some more companies before the end of the year, believes RBC Capital Markets Managing Director Mark Sue, who suggests Cisco should be eyeing up storage maker QLogic and WAN acceleration company Silver Peak Systems.
According to Sue's train of thought: "Cisco mentioned 'tough comparisons' more often on its last earnings call than in recent quarters, implying that the company may be due for an acquisition to boost its long-term growth prospects. So far this year, Cisco has made only four acquisitions, implying it is behind last year's pace when the company made 11 deals. We're also approaching the three-year mark for one of Cisco's largest deals, Scientific Atlanta, which closed at a deal price of $6.9B.
"So where might Cisco be looking and where's the money flowing? Three specific areas in our view as relates to growth markets of video, storage and virtualization. One company that might fit well into Cisco in terms of size and product set may be Qlogic, in our view. Cisco has recently underperformed in the storage market and saw this segment decline in revenues by 14% YoY. In our opinion, Qlogic brings an expansive storage set in FC, iSCSI, and Ethernet with healthy gross margins near 69% and very strong operating margins."
QLogic Stock Chart:
 Sue adds: "Cisco's current CFO also has intimate knowledge of Qlogic, having been its prior CFO. Additionally, Cisco's retired CFO is on the board of Qlogic. Is a deal pending? We don't think so, although we believe it's one that would make sense. And with a market cap of $2.5B, it's a deal Cisco could easily stomach, as it has over $20B in net cash. |
"Other possibilities? Perhaps privately held Silver Peak Systems, which makes high-end WAN acceleration product for the data centers and may be complementary to Cisco's current mid range products. According to our sources, some deals are off the table (i.e., EMC, NTAP, and RIMM) due to various reasons, some of which relate to customer conflicts, limited synergies, and increase in market cap."
He concludes: "All in all, we think Cisco will make several more acquisitions by the end of the calendar year as it looks to nudge its top-line growth prospects towards the upper band of its long-term projections of 12-17%."
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RBC Capital Markets Managing Director Mark Sue foresees 6% top line growth for Alcatel-Lucent in calendar year 2009.
| According to Sue: "For CY09, we are assuming just 6% top line growth to our estimate of EUR18.2B. Stronger demand for wireline access infrastructure, growth in optical, and price stabilization in wireless may enable Alcatel-Lucent to potentially expand on this growth rate but we're still maintaining a conservative stance at this point given the company's inconsistent execution." |
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Sue adds: "What a mess it's been as Alcatel and Lucent tried to merge, rationalize its product line, while simultaneously fending off competition. At least there are some management changes coming up which should help stabilize the beleaguered company. Alcatel-Lucent announced that Ben Verwaayen, previously of BT will become its new CEO, effective October 1st. On a fundamental basis, the situation still remains challenged for Alcatel, and considering our view that a full recovery is not underway anytime soon, we're maintaining our neutral stance on the shares.
"Verwaayen was CEO of BT from 2002 to 2008 and previously was vice-chairman of Lucent Technologies and brings strong execution skills and broad industry contacts. We look for the change in management to stem the current internal disaccord and articulate a clearer strategy of differentiation. Thus far margin improvements have been difficult to come by for the combined entity.
"Near term for the quarter ending in September, RBC is modeling sales of EUR4.05B versus the street at EUR4.06B and EPS of EUR0.05 versus the street at EUR0.06. We're not looking for any new guidance methodology any time soon and if anything, considering the macro environment and executive changes, Alcatel-Lucent may potentially be more conservative with its full year outlook."
He concludes: "As far as the stock is concerned, the shares are trading at just 0.6x 2009E EV/Sales. Over the last three years, the shares have traded between 0.4x and 2.2x EV/Sales, with an average of 1.2x. On a P/E basis, the shares are trading at 10X our CY09E EPS. Shares are down over 17% for the year. Our rating remains Sector Perform despite the depressed valuation."
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While trying to foretell the upcoming Ciena 3rd Quarter 2008 results to be released this Thursday, September 4th, RBC Capital Markets Managing Director Mark Sue is reporting that customer concentration remains the challenge for Ciena, and in particular, key customer Sprint (~10%) seems to have sharply turned off its capex (capital expenditures) spigot.
| According to Sue: "Although Ciena may be enjoying solid trends with BT, AT&T and Verizon for that matter, we're not expecting a rebound anytime soon at Sprint. Subsequently, we're reducing our estimate for the upcoming October quarter from $268M to $260M or just 3% sequential growth. CY09 EPS declines from $1.88 to $1.80. Shares may nonetheless be reaching a bottom trading at just 10X our new CY09 EPS estimate. Ciena's market cap. is $1.5B and the company maintains ~$2.0B in NOLs (Net Operating Loss)." |
Ciena Stock Chart:
Sue adds: "Ciena's July quarter results this Thursday morning should be solid and we're expecting revenues to grow 4% sequentially to our estimate of $252M vs. the consensus of $254M. EPS may come in at $0.40, in line with the consensus, although a penny may come from a lower share count. The issue may be the outlook. Although Ciena may stick to its 27% revenue growth for the year, inclusive of the World Wide Packets acquisition, visibility has decreased and closure rates have expanded, in our view.
"Looking ahead, Ciena may see an uptake in major markets with Verizon and continued progress at BT, both internally and within the 21CN (21st Century Network) build. WWP remains on track for $35-$40M in revenues this fiscal year and we look for an expanding role for this Ethernet-centric product at AT&T.
"Gross margins on the product side still remain predominately product mix dependent and we are estimating slightly down gross margins from last quarter's 56.4%. Service gross margins should hold steady at 30%. Operating margins may dip sequentially due to the a ramp in R&D expenses as Ciena elected to accelerate certain new product development. Overall operating margins nonetheless may remain near 15%."
He concludes: "Optical demand remains healthy, in our view, yet the problems at certain service providers are having an impact on Ciena. We believe Ciena is executing well with other key accounts and is also diversifying its revenues with tier 2 carriers. And with a broadening product portfolio, Ciena is expanding its addressable market into carrier Ethernet. New target of $25 reflects 14X our CY09 EPS."
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Aruba sales in 2008 jumped $50.8 million, a 40% increase over 2007 according to the 4th Quarter and Year-End 2008 results of the wireless LAN vendor.
In examining Aruba's results - RBC Capital Markets Managing Director Mark Sue reports that Alcatel-Lucent was once again a 10% partner. U.S. represented 65% of sales with Asia and Europe comprising the remaining 35% where bookings were particularly strong.
| According to Sue: "Strength during the quarter came from the education vertical and Aruba also saw encouraging trends from the industrial, healthcare and federal segments.
"General enterprise sales showed firming trends as well. Our rating remains Sector Perform, price target $8." |
Aruba Networks Stock Chart:
Sue adds: "Gross margins declined sequentially, the first time in three quarters, from 70.7% to 68.7%, mostly due to distribution and product mix. Aruba reiterated its gross margin range of 65%-68% and we're modeling margins near 68% for the near term. Operating margins are not yet showing meaningful leverage and much of this is related to the higher legal expense related to the patent lawsuit against Motorola. DSOs inched higher to 61 days above the range of 50-55 days but is expected to decline sequentially. Inventory turns improved from 2.7x to 4.5x.
"Aruba's results displayed further signs of stabilization as the company posted a 13% sequential increase in revenues to $48.3M, coming in ahead of our estimate of $46.5M. Expense control enabled non-GAAP break-even results vs. the consensus estimate of a loss of ($0.01). For the upcoming quarter, Aruba is endorsing revenues of $50M-$52M vs. the consensus of $49M. Full-year revenue guidance (ending in July) is $220-$230M vs. the consensus of $220M.
"In our view, the issue remains the full-year EPS guidance range of $0.12 to $0.15, which compares to the consensus of $0.17. Approximately $0.04 of this, however, is related to the ongoing expenses for legal argument against Motorola. And with a higher component of revenues coming from the channels, the better revenues may not all translate to improved earnings growth."
He concludes: "Step by step is how we would characterize the firming trends at the various verticals. And with a product cycle in wireless N combined with continued growth in deferred revenues (from $22M to $27M), visibility overall seems to be steadily improving. Earnings momentum nonetheless may trail top-line growth as Aruba works to balance expense control and also factors in higher legal expenses."
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Cisco accounted for almost a third of Sigma Designs' wafer business, according to figures from the semiconductor manufacturer's Q2 '09 results. In examining Sigma's results, RBC Capital Markets Managing Director Mark Sue reports that Sigma's key customers during the quarter were Cisco at 31% and Motorola at 29%.
| According to Sue: "Inventories were $45M, up from $37M in the prior quarter due to strategic purchases of wafers to support key customers such as Motorola and Cisco.
"For the quarter - Sigma reported revenues of $58.2M, a modest sequential increase of 2%. North America revenues were $3M or 5%, down 19% sequentially." |
Sigma Designs Stock Chart:
Sue adds: "Gross margins improved from 50.4% to 51.9% due to cost reductions and Sigma in its usual stance reiterated its gross margins of 50% (within a range of 48-52%). Operating margins improved sequentially from 23.8% to 27.3% as Sigma reined in opex. Revenues in APAC were $29.5M or 51%, down 5% sequentially, while sales in Europe were $25.7M or 44%, up 16% sequentially.
"IPTV STB revenues were a decent $49.2M, an increase of 14% QoQ. Nonetheless, HD DVD sales and connected media revenues declined sharply due to the lack of chipsets for the rapidly growing BluRay market where Sigma lost share to Panasonic and NEC. The guidance is calling for flattish revenues vs. the consensus of $65.5M due to some near-term pause in the IPTV rollout in Korea and France as well as the delay in BluRay chipsets where it seems Sigma will miss out on the all-important holiday selling season.
"Two more modest growth quarters are what we're estimating as Sigma deals with some inventory digestion and a delay in new products. Beyond the next couple of quarters, Sigma may benefit from expanding IPTV subscribers and the ramp in BluRay, particularly with its product refresh late this year. At the moment, we're maintaining our Sector Perform rating as we look for improving earnings visibility."
He concludes: "Sigma is working to improve the predictability of its order stream and is establishing a die bank for its expanding list of customers. The 8654 chip is expected to ship by the end of this year and ramp quickly in the first calendar quarter, and thus far, the feedback from key customers such as Sony, Sharp, and Samsung have been favorable, in our view. Until then, however, meaningful catalysts may be lacking and we remain neutral on the shares."
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Robert X. Cringely - the famous Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) weekly columnist whose Web site describes him as a sex symbol, airplane enthusiast and intrepid adventurer (the nerdiest of them all?), has authored a very provocative column regarding CCIEs and how their numbers and geographic locations could become key indicators to help economists predict which countries in the future hold the most promise for becoming technology leaders.
In his column, Leading Men: Cisco engineering units are the emerging measure of global power, Cringely credits his friend and dual CCIE George Morton, as originating the idea to use the number of CCIEs within a country to predict who will be the technology leaders of the future. He also links to this blog by yours truly which Cringely says "inspired this rant".
 Cringely writes: " ... divide the number of CCIEs into each country's population, then do the same for each country's Gross Domestic Product and correct for widely varying populations and states of economic development ... It is logical to assume that nations with adjusted numbers that exceed those of the U.S. for CCIEs per 100K are Internet up-and-comers and ought to fare well in the decades ahead."
He adds that "Beyond the population statistic, countries that have significantly less GDP per CCIE are those that would seem to have made networking a national priority. Countries that are significantly behind the U.S. on one measure or another are just that -- behind the U.S. -- which is not good." |
Cringely then goes on to compare India with China, and Japan with South Korea. India has 0.036 CCIEs per 100K to China's 0.22 per 100K -- a 7X differential -- while India has $10 billion in GDP per CCIE to China's $3.3 billion, he notes.
He adds: "There is no doubt that there is plenty of network expertise in India, but these numbers show that expertise isn't making it out of the technology centers to the rest of the country. China, on the other hand, is developing its IT infrastructure much more broadly. This also doesn't take into account the simply huge numbers coming out of Hong Kong, where there are 3.3 CCIEs per 100K and $1.13 billion in GDP per CCIE -- numbers that might properly be added to the rest of China in some accounts.
"Japan has 1.23 CCIEs per 100K to South Korea's 1.9, but the significant difference between these two countries is the $4 billion per CCIE in GDP for Japan compared to $1.28 billion in South Korea, which is clearly investing massively in network infrastructure."
He concludes: "Looking 30 years into the future I think it is clear that the regional leaders will be China and Korea, NOT India and Japan."
A reader of Cringely's column, Internet Consultant Sam Zenner, created a fascinating interactive chart of the number of CCIEs per 100K capita.
CCIE per capita: Overview of the number of Cisco CCIEs per capita for over a 100 countries
To access the below chart in an interactive format, visit the Zenner Media website (columns are sortable by clicking on the header).
To access the above chart in an interactive format, visit the Zenner Media website (columns are sortable by clicking on the header).
View the nine year worldwide CCIE count as well as more CCIE water cooler gossip.
Perhaps in the future, it will not be unusual to have Wall Street pundits state:
The decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today was softened somewhat by a reported increase in the Pacific Rim CCIE count.
Do YOU agree?
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Back on July 8 the CCIE Number stood at 21419, it reached 21809 on August 20, this increase of 390 new CCIEs divided by 43 days, works out to an average of 9 newly minted CCIEs per day.
| 21809 - CCIE Number as of August 20 2008
1024 - Beginning CCIE Number issued August 1993 20785 - CCIE Numbers earned 17660 - Total worldwide CCIE count as of August 1 2008 3125 - Inactive CCIE Numbers |
 Regarding the inclusion in the worldwide count of individuals whose CCIE number is in "suspended status," Fred Weiller - Director of Marketing for Learning@Cisco, provided Cisco's official response:
"Currently 'suspended' CCIE's are included in the published worldwide statistics." |
"As these candidates are eligible to recertify, we believe that we should continue to count them as part of our global community of expert networking professionals."
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Related story:
Will the global CCIE count predict the future of world power?
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