2012 Predictions: Will RIM Even Be Relevant By The Time New Blackberries Are Ready?

RIM could be the Lotus 123 or Word Perfect of Mobile

This is the first in a series I will be doing between now and New Years on predictions for 2012.

RIM has had a bad 2011, but unfortunately it looks like 2012 will be even worse.  They have seen their once commanding lead in the smartphone market shrivel away. Where RIM used to be the one to watch for mobile connectivity, they now seem like a two headed dinosaur moving too slow to keep up with the crowd.  People laugh when they see others looking at the tiny blackberry screens to watch a video or other graphic.

Their entry into the tablet market seemed ill conceived and ill designed and fell promptly on its face taking a half a billion dollar write off in the process.  What were they thinking releasing a tablet without email integration to their bread and butter service?

Now just recently came word that the next generation of smartphones which they were counting on to rescue the company are being delayed until at least late in 2012. At best these new phones would have given RIM some parody parity with Apple and Android. But by the time they hit the market, chances are both Apple and Android and even Microsoft's next gen phones will already be out, leaving RIM at least a generation behind again. Frankly even if other makers didn't release new phones by then, it would probably be too little, too late by then anyway.

RIM could become the Lotus 1-2-3 or Word Perfect of the smartphone market.  That is a product that established and dominated a market only to fall behind faster, smarter, more innovative competitors.

The lesson to be learned is that unless you are as innovative and have the marketing might of an Apple, it is better to be an open system that allows for the free flow of innovation. RIM's black box philosophy and tight control over apps and features created a bottle neck that couldn't keep up with the market. They have been a day late and a dollar short on just about every release they have had for the last few years.

Also their dual CEO model is one that has not had a lot of success at other companies.  It is the rate set of people who can share the CEO title without the company being a schizophrenic disaster.

But believe it or not I predict that all is not lost for RIM.  I think when faced with the failures they are staring at they will make the only sane decision left to them. They will get out of the hardware business. They may even get out of the phone and tablet software business. 

RIM's strength is in managing mobile devices for the enterprise. Coincidently, this is just the thing that many enterprises need help with.  RIM can build a great business as the makers of mobile device management for the enterprise. It may be a smaller piece of the pie then they once owned.  But better a small piece of the pie then no pie at all!

Authors Note:  Just came across this and thought it went well with the article

• Smartphones
• Android
• Apple
• Google
• Microsoft
• Nokia
• RIM
• Windows