Analogies can illuminate or mislead, depending on whether they are "apt" or bogus.

Comparing electrical power to IT is ridiculous. Electrical power in the US is totally standardized. Same plugs, outlets, voltage, and frequency everywhere. It is truly a commodity. This level of standardization is inconceivable in IT. Try to get two different VoIP phone systems to inter-operate over a "standard" protocol - it's not easy.

I have been in this industry since 1979, and a lot of things have become much simpler. The problem is that what we do with IT is constantly expanding, so even though it is simpler at a micro level, it is more complex at a macro level because of all the "moving parts".

Carr has grasped some trends in the industry and extrapolated them beyond reason. I'm so sure we won't need any programmers in the future. Who is going to write all these sophisticated systems that let any "know nothing" build an application through a video game interface?

I'll put my qualifications up against his any time, although I have not written any books:
BS - Data Processing/Computer Math (dual major)
MS - Management of Technology
CCIE 1634, CCVP, CCDP
Have owned: TRS-80 Model1, TI 99/4a, Apple IIe, Atari 800, and numerous PCs.
First IT job: Honeywell mainframe application to collect warranty claims from 110 baud teletypes at GM dealers. Now that's "old school".