So who says that you can give a great deal of credence to knowledge of what technology Al-Qaeda or any other 'closed' organization is using?

Far all you know, their 'known' methods are just a cover for a more sophisticated method of evasion

To be safe, you must always assume that the other side has every bit as good a system as you do. And with encryption, there is no way to argue that Al-Qaeda and others don't have access to sophisticated methods.

This said, you are left assuming that the Al-Qaeda & its like, are either:
1) Stupid and not using what is available (which would tend to reduce them as a threat.)
2) Letting some communications be overheard, most likely with the intent that pursuit of their more modern methods will be reduced.

As threats go, Al-Qaeda is not much of one to me--to me the biggest threat worldwide is the tyranny of the American President since the Military Commissions Act of 2006 turned us all into unpeople, ready for the President to sacrifice for whatever cause without restraint.

Al-Qaeda's death toll is orders of magnitude less than the number of civilians killed by the American Dictator.

Click to read the article this is in response to.