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IT salaries have not changed much from the 80s.
It appears to me that mainframe salaries have remained fairly stagnent since the 1980s. So mainframers move onto upper management and vendor positions that are improved over these numbers.
So it isn't that they are just retiring, they are moving on to keep an increasing salary to keep up with the rising inflation and taxes.
And all of this is from HR. HR sees other similar positions from other platforms and feel that mainframers are no exception.