IPv4 addresses won't run out if a lot of folks adopt IPv6 up front as their addresses will be returned to the pool. I'd like to see some hard numbers on how many addresses remain for IPv4. Every company, agency, etc is using NAT for their internal IP space, as much for security as any other reason. I see benefits to switching I'm just quibbling w/the argument that we'll run out of IPv4 space by 2010.
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Hording will prevent free addresses
I do not think any company will willingly give up their address space in IPv4 - Even way past 2010 this will still be considered the Real and reliable Net. I forsee interopability problems for several years after more global adoption of IPv6.
I think one deterent not discussed is that IPv6 does not seem to force any authentication and therefore does nothing to reduce DDoS attacks. It also (even if this is not true) has the appearance to the public, of only being a change to add more IP address space, as long is this is the public preception there will be no effort to move to it while IP address space is available.
Another factor is the inevitable change from 1000's of start up ISP's to 5-10 giant world wide corps that "own" most of the internets network space. These larger networks will have more need for things like AS numbers than public IP addresses, so this congealing of networks should reduce the need for so many public IP addresses, but again unless forced, I don't see any large ISP giving up their IPv4 space willingly.
I think it is obvious that IANA/ICAAN will need to come up with some stricter rules and enforcement for IPv4 address space ownership over the next year.
Another view of IPv6
The NANOG meeting in Albuquerque had an excellent presentation on "IPv6 Transition & Operational Reality".
Watch the whole presentation for a different view at what the issues are in the IPv6 transition:
http://www.nanog.org/mtg-0710/bush.html
IPv6
I believe that it would be more conducive if the public would be made aware of the glitch that will be the slowdown for their internet access through their ISP and this will create a greater ground swell of interest in the deployment of the IPv6 adoption.
Rich
What were the results
Can you publish what you learned during your 1 hour foray into IPv6?
IPV6 2010 ?
Doubt it....as stated earlier, everybody is using private IP space, not only for limited public addresses, but for security in general. With NAT/Port Forwarding/ and using host headers for websites, it lessens the needs for public ip's.
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