Nokia's announcement of the WiMAX version of the N810 this week at the CTIA show in Las Vegas lifted the curtain on yet another poorly-kept secret. Rumored for some time, the Internet Tablet WiMAX Edition is pretty much an N810 with a WiMAX radio added. As I've noted before, I really like the N810 (the version without WiMAX; I've not tried the new one), and I expect it to do well - once there's a US WiMAX network to run it on. In the meantime, BTW, the WiMAX N810 also has Wi-Fi and GPS - enough to keep you busy until service comes to your neighborhood.
And Sprint CEO Dan Hesse, in his keynote at CTIA, reaffirmed Sprint's commitment to WiMAX, although he didn't really say how he intends to pull off the feat of a nationwide WiMAX footprint before LTE (see a brief description on page 3 of this Motorola document also comes to town. It could be argued that LTE is still basically pie-in-the-sky itself; after all, there are no commercial LTE networks operating anywhere in the world today, and Dan Hesse still believes he has a two-year advantage over LTE regardless. And that could be true. But what impresses me here is that LTE is the natural upgrade path for GSM/UMTS/HSPA, and the installed base of this community is simply massive. The marketing power of the GSM family, 80% of the world's installed base of cellular, is equally impressive. Verizon Wireless, today a CDMA carrier, is going with LTE, as will AT&T and T-Mobile.
There have been calls for a single standard in wireless since the early days, but they're more visible now, most notably from Ericsson, who one might think would be better served building equipment for multiple technologies. But we've never had a single standard ever in the history of cellular wide-area communications. There were at least nine different analog systems, and then CDMA, TDMA, and GSM in 2D digital. There are two key standards in 3G today, UMTS and CDMA2000, although there are a number of others recognized by the ITU, including, interestingly, WiMAX. Can we converge to a single wide-area-standard for 4G?
I think it's doubtful, but, if we did, that standard would be LTE. WiMAX would be frozen out. Simple as that. Whenever two technologies perform the same function, the one with the larger installed base wins. But, you say, LTE has no installed base. Yes, but its parents do. And technological excellence has little to do with the outcome. Marketing is more important than engineering, as is the global GSM community sticking together and not having to think about this.
The two-year advantage that Sprint believes it has could evaporate very quickly as the LTE guys start building gear. The battle's not over yet, but the handwriting may already be on the wall. WiMAX will survive for a long time, particularly in developing economies, but there may be no contest at all when it goes up against LTE.
Mathias is a principal at Farpoint Group, a wireless advisory firm in Ashland, Mass.
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Well, what Mobile WiMax has
Well, what Mobile WiMax has going for it is that
1. Mobile WiMax will become a standard feature in most Centrino laptops 2 years from now, whereas LTE will always be an add on.
2. Mobile WiMax is primarily drive by Samsung(Samsung is the primary Mobile WiMax platform holder with a 41% patent share, not Intel), which tend to develop technology much faster than its European rivals.
3. Mobile WiMax is already widely deployed outside of US.
Yes, But Infrastructure is the Issue...
1. That could be true. But there will be PCI Express Mini Cards and Mini PCI Cards for LTE, so the result is the same for the consumer, and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Intel (or even AMD) won't make an LTE "Centrino" type of product. Chip vendors always follow the volume. Just ask Intel about the 432, 860, and many other promising products they dropped over the years.
2. Perhaps, but it's question of infrastructure here. Is Samsung going to step up its investment with Sprint to build a nationwide network in the US?
3. No argument on emerging economies, as I noted.
And the point I'm making here is the the WiMAX coimmunity may be discounting just how ferocious the competition from LTE may be, and overestimating the theoretical timing advnatage that they might have.
Thanks for the note.
Craig.
LTE Vs WiMAX Vs Reality
Here is my opinion and practical interpretation of LTE Vs Wimax Vs all other technologies debate. Similar to sprint decisions, the physical result of 6-month technology debate resulted in creation of Wateen Telecom in Pakistan, which has the most futuristic architecture. It is WiMAX Local Loop, HFC and a national wide IP/MPLS infrastructure to deliver any service.
As the company strategist and commercial head, the local loop technology selection criteria for the Greenfield operations summed up in two future-proof arguments.
(a) It has to delivery all services and equivalent BW as copper landline local-loop today, at 50% lower or better price OR 4 X more simulated capacity.
(b) Has to be open standards platform with QOS capabilities to enable services developed in IP ecosystem companies from internet to B2B, B2C applications, in point-to-point & Point-to-Multipoint mode.
Once technology selection was made, Motorola became the integrator to deliver converged services integrated platform with Moto, Cisco & others hardware, powered by IMS & Soft-switch to meet all regulatory requirements.
We practically translated and tested as follows:
1. Similar on-demand Bandwidth/customer as copper last mile. Deliver better symmetrical BW to match landline copper infrastructures (not FTTH) at same or better price points to become its substitute.
2. Open standards mandatory, to utilize all applications developed in IP ecosystem.
3. Services tested included: (a) PSTN replacement (same as voice) with all value-add features of follow me etc. etc. (b) Pt-2-Pt Video calling (c) Video-conferencing (d) Internet Access.
Marketing wise here are the Yeah’s for WiMAX: WiMAX uptake in emerging markets is happening simply for two reasons. It is available today and is practically deployable as a substitute to copper infrastructure in 2.3, 2.5, 3.5 & 4.9 G allotted spectrum in different countries. The manufacturers have already promised cellular-like size & feature-rich handsets & PCMIA cards in similar price targets. So the concept is that the uptake in 10-25 years age market segment all over the world will be fast.
For green-field operators, the targeted customer segments are broadband users’ first, broadband+ voice users next and voice only users third. Simple enough they will go where their products have best fit and least resistance from competitors. Customers experience will be same or better as fixed devices look the same as DSL/Cable modems and handheld devices look like cellular phones (See Nokia Wimax sets). Churn from GSM/CDMA will be there when customers need to add broadband services not available off GSM/CDMA platforms today). Voice-only users are not expected to churn, unless the value-add free information and commercial application become an attraction within affordable price.
For existing operators adding WiMAX today is feasible, as they need to curb the churn and retain customers on one of their own platforms between WiMAX or GSM/CDMA platforms. The trend to become a multiplatform vendor is all ready there all over the world, so when LTE is finally available the carrier’s will see how best economically it best services the market requirements at that stage.
Vendor’s have no favorites in technologies if they are manufacturing them. To them what matters is the sale. Most large vendors have bought out startups as they forecasted the WiMAX technology demand to grow. Navini and Next-net are examples.