I really enjoy analysts' predictions, especially when they foretell a major shift in the market. It's not that often a major analyst firm like Gartner steps out of the "$xx billion in 5 years" mold and actually puts it on the line with a whopper statement. (Don't worry Richard, I won't bring up the "death of IPS" prediction.) Gartner's Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald have done just that, calling Microsoft's gluttonous collection of legacy code untenable, expecting Windows to cave in on itself by 2011. The "comet" striking Microsoft is the rise of the web application to dominance. Most of their argument rests on the failures of Vista and the rise of the OS-agnostic web app. I can't say that I disagree with either arguments, but they forgot to predict how Ray Ozzie and his mesh strategy would either make or break Microsoft. That's the real question, isn't it? I think so.
Will Microsoft be able to establish critical mass in the Live world of web apps and services? Will Microsoft be able to keep pace with the likes of Google, Salesforce, Amazon and the growing number of SaaS application ISVs and cloud infrastructure providers? Can Microsoft Mesh, Microsoft Sync Framework and Silverlight become mature enough to take hold as a viable platform to attract web applications away from Linux, Java, Ruby, Python and open source based technologies? Can Microsoft succeed in its extreme corporate makeover? It's a very tall order to ask of Steve Ballmer and Ray Ozzie. A VERY tall order.
Microsoft's task at hand is the equivalent of IBM remaking itself from the dominant mainframe hardware company into a global services company and Linux advocate. Hey wait a minute... IBM did just that. Sure, there are still mainframes around. You know the saying - old Cobol programmers never die, they've got to stick around to fix the next compiler syntax error. (You just had a flashback of spelling DATA DIVISION wrong again didn't you.) IBM isn't the 800 pound monopoly they once were but they certainly continue as a going concern and a major industry player.
VIsta's failures may have been the division bell that woke Microsoft up to a new set of software realities, but Microsoft has yet to learn some very hard lessons - lessons they don't appear to have glommed onto yet. In the world of On Demand software, user experience is king. If software is confusing, hard to use or just plain user hostile, the user can just as easily move on as put up with lousy software - and they will. That means no more Office 2007 ribbon menu fiasco crap, or "redesigning" Windows features by hiding them behind some new GUI widget. Software must be easy to learn and use. Better yet, software's got to be a pleasure to use.
It also means no more bloatware. Outlook is only second to Apple iTunes in the bloatware winner category. It's huge, kludgy, slow to respond and loves to sport that all too familiar "Not Responding" message. That won't cut it in a browser window running over a network with virtualized components and data synchronization everywhere. The bloatware thinking's gotta go. And lastly, Microsoft needs to learn that it doesn't have to have aproduct in every conceivable software category. How about focusing on fewer areas and doing them exceptionally well.
Does Ozzie have the clout, stamina and moxie to pull off this kind of major shift? Is Ballmer fully behind it? Those are questions I'd like to hear Gartner and others lay a prediction on.
Like this? Here are some of Mitchell's recent posts.
Google + Salesforce = Increased Google App Usage
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"Sterling" Beta Brings Forefront Front and CenterMitchell's Hottest Blog Posts:
Google Scoops Microsoft-Delivers Mesh First
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Apple Fixes Open Source Vulnerabilities,
What Microsoft Mesh Means To You,
Apple iPhone Doomed To Failure.Check out Mitchell's Converging On Microsoft Podcast. Current Podcast Episode: Security Mike Gets Serious About Security
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Mitchell Ashley is CEO and Chief Strategist of Converging Network, LLC, providing product and technology strategies to emerging technology companies. A serial entrepreneur, Mitchell has created many successful products and services in the networking, security, convergence, Internet and IT industries. In addition to blogging for NetworkWorld, Mitchell regularly blogs at TheConvergingNetwork and co-hosts the widely popular Still Crazy After All These Years podcast.
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Comet hitting Microsoft
You have asked for other predictions about Microsoft's ability to transform itself. My prediction is, No, they will not be able to do this. A good example is their efforts to acquire Yahoo!. This is a marriage doomed to failure because of the complete lack of ability for either company to leverage the strengths of the other.
Microsoft has already attempted to be an online player with MSN and they failed to move beyond marginal relevance. Why do they believe that they will find success with Yahoo which is also failing to keep up with the rapidly changing web world.
No, Microsoft will hang on to their Windows/Office cash cow for as long as possible, even to their own demise.
Microsoft doomed
Microsoft has to much at stake with the Windows/Office revenue stream to be able to remove themselves from its influence and migrate to the world of online services and apps.
Even though they WANT to make the move, there isn't a way for their value chain inside and outside of the company to allow them to do this.
The other companies, like Salesforce, Amazon, and others, built into their business models the ability to operate in the new world of SaaS.
Microsoft, on the other hand, has made the attempt for years with MSN and failed to move that effort beyond marginal obscurity.
Why does anyone believe that Microsoft will be able to seemlessly integrate with Yahoo and turn around Yahoo's and Microsoft's fortunes at the same time?
Richard Bliss
http://gwbliss.blogspot.com
Stupid Gartner
Those guys forget one thing:
Web application/Web search is never the profit source of MSFT. Without Live search or whatever, MSFT is still MSFT and nothing to lose.
The world is not just about web application. All those so-called Web2.0 are depending on backend database (lots of them are based on MS SQL Server), Operating System (Again, most small/middle companies rely on Windows 2000/2003/2008).
Not to mention multimedia and computer entertainment, which is a larger industry than Hollywood.