So Kevin Turner says, “The long-standing user computing model of ever-increasing power and speed at the desktop (or laptop) may be fading in favor of lower-cost machines with 'good enough' capabilities.” The unsaid portion is that Microsoft did indeed have it wrong when it came to Vista -- when it came to its entire more-is-ALWAYS-better philosophy.
More is often just more. While it seems that low-cost computers always seem to be mentioned in the same breath as "developing" countries, the fact is that there are millions of homes in the developed world where a $400 PC is a great idea, particularly for the kids. Likewise, there are just as many enterprise areas where limited functionality is a blessing -- a PC in a shared hospital/nurse station, in a call center, on the factory floor. None of them need games and do-dads. But what is also being hinted here is Long Live XP. XP's life has been extended for just this very market. If this market is a significant future for Microsoft, then it seems as if XP has a lot of life in it yet.
Also see:
Red Hat ditches Linux desktop plans
The making of Wine (how to make Windows apps merrier with Linux)
XP Starter Edition avail until 2010
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Elegance?!
If users base their selection of OS on these devices on elegance, XP will not stand a chance against modern Linux, especially not the XP scaled down version that Microsoft keep alive for a bit longer.
Application compatibility might work, but that would probably require Microsft to develop scaled down versions of e.g. MS-Office to make that work.
But the hardest thing for them to overcome is that they are competing against a free, and very customizable system.
Elegance
The ULPC running either Linux or Windows is fine and I run both today on my regular PCs. I will say that moving to Linux is non-trivial and you have to search for apps that are compatible with your version of Linux. Thats what the Linux guys don't seem to understand - it has to work easily for mass appeal.
Its still not ready for prime-time but it does keep Redmond on their toes and that's a good thing.
just to be clear on that quote
Microsoft's Kevin Turner did not say “The long-standing user computing model of ever-increasing power and speed at the desktop....."
It was Bruce Guptill, managing director of research firm Saugatuck Technology