"...there will be constant change. I see Windows, a major new version of Windows every two to three years." Those were Bill Gates' words last week during his speech at the Digital Lifestyle Consortium in Tokyo, according to a transcript released by Microsoft. Those words have to put fear in the hearts of every IT manager all over the world. But, a version of Windows every 2-3 years is being backed up by Gates intimating we'll see Windows 7 in October 2009. If you think IT is struggling with upgrades to major Windows releases now (W2k to XP, and XP to Vista), think about a major version every 2-3 years. Is this Microsoft's attempt to get Windows under some type of Agile development release cycle? Well, sort of, but I think we'll see some other major changes in Windows that challenge some of our long standing assumptions about the Windows OS.
First, Windows versions won't be complete rewrites of the Windows OS. Microsoft, or anybody else for that matter, is it not capable of rewriting their OS every 2-3 years. Nor would the waterfall of hardware drivers and ISVs who would need to revamp their software line that quickly. It would drive everybody off the Windows platform, including IT organizations. You can nix the idea that Windows versions mean rewrites of Windows.
Next, Windows versions will be upgrades, not rewrites. I know it's popular to dis' Vista and pin Microsoft's hopes on Windows 7. Sorry to burst your bubble, but Windows 7 won't replace Vista. Windows 7 will be an upgrade to Vista, not a replacement. Microsoft has too much vested in the ground up rewrite in Vista. Vista is the core of the Windows Server 2008 software and Vista's variants. Windows 7 will be improvements to Vista. Gates even said in his talk,
"lower power, take less memory, be more efficient". Sounds like optimization, not a restart, to me. So if you don't want to do your homework, keep writing and believing that Windows 7 is another rewrite and Vista will crawl away as a Microsoft failure. I don't believe it will come down that way.
Next, Windows 7 expands connectivity and helps start the move to Live Mesh from the operating system on up. More of what Gates had to say, "lots more connections up to the mobile phone, so those scenarios connect up well to make it a great platform for the best gaming that can be done, to connect up to the thing being done out on the Internet, so that, for example, if you have two personal computers, that your files automatically are synchronized between them, and so you don't have a lot of work to move that data back and forth." Expect Live Mesh's synchronization and optimization to be something aided and optimized through Windows 7. Microsoft's serious about Live Mesh and Windows 7 is just the start of the OS helping enable and deliver on the Ozzie's Live Mesh and Software-plus-Services (or SaaS) vision.
Lastly, Windows OS will get smaller, not bigger. What, you say? Has this blogger gone bonkers? Well, this is just my own speculation but the role of the OS is changing right from under our disk drives. Windows versions of the future will become less and less the big brother, monolithic operating systems we've known for years. I believe the role of the OS of the future is threefold; optimize for application virtualization, streamline sync (data & apps) local storage, streaming and distribution over the network, and be that OS to hardware disintermediation layer so the rest of the software stack both doesn't have to worry about hardware details and so data storage, processing and display can be adapted intelligently to the capabilities of the hardware device.
If you think about my last point of the new role of the Windows OS (many other OS' for that matter), Windows isn't bloated down with the all registry junk and feature de jour (because of application virtualization). Apps are streamed and/or virtualized. They live in the network, on the device, or both, but apps aren't intertwined into the OS like they are today. Let server OS optimization for application serving, processing and data transfer / sync optimization happen. And let user device display and interact with the user happen on the user device, where ever the app and its data truly live.
The bottom line... Let applications be just that, applications, not extensions of the operating system. And let Windows become the platform for application virtualization and Live Mesh style apps. We'll see a lot less Windows rewrites that way. That's the only way Microsoft can deliver new Windows versions every 2-3 years.
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I posted a blog earlier today titled "In the S+S world does the notion of major software releases go out of the window". After reading your post I updated to add a reference to Bill G's transcript.
This isn't new
For better or worse MSFT announced over a year ago their strategy was to have a major release every 4 years and an "R2" release every off 2. This strategy spans their entire enterprise portfolio.