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Paul McNamara

How could anyone not know that Titan's atmosphere is mostly nitrogen?

By Paul McNamara on Wed, 05/21/08 - 11:24am.

Of course, I'm kidding.

However, the question, which springs from this mea culpa post by Phil Plait on his always-entertaining Bad Astronomy blog, speaks to one half of a serious issue that has puzzled me for many years, and, in more recent times, caused me considerable concern as a parent.

If everyone makes mistakes -- and they do -- why are so many people unwilling to accept the mistakes of others (not to mention their own)?

From Plait's post:

Well, I blew it, and I suppose I should make it official.

In my second video answering questions from sixth graders, I said that Titan's atmosphere is mostly methane.

Bzzzzzt. It's mostly nitrogen (specifically, N2, like in Earth's atmosphere). It's only about 1% methane.

A simple slip of the tongue, albeit repeated twice, he explains.

In this case, comments on the post are understanding, sympathetic and even amusing -- "It's OK, dude. It's hard to answer questions like that when you're ducking to avoid sniper fire." That's as would be expected, given that those writing are fans of the blogger.

But it isn't always that way, as anyone who has put their words and thoughts before the public for any length of time can attest. I cannot imagine there are too many writers who have not been on the receiving end of this question: "How could someone who doesn't know (fill in the blank) write for (fill in the blank)?"

My temptation has always been to reply that I have considered their point, tendered my resignation, and expect that they will help pay for next week's groceries.

One of those responding to Plait's mistake raises a more useful point:

In actuallity, your providing those 6th graders (and many others) with an invaluable lesson about how science works. Science makes mistakes. Science can change when better answers are found. I think those kids will be much richer in their quest for knowledge because of it. Kudos.

Yes, I left the spelling errors in there on purpose; can't tell you whether the writer intended to do the same.

After all, it's OK to make mistakes, not only in spelling, science, journalism and responding to bloggers, but in all walks of life. That doesn't mean that mistakes don't have consequences or that there isn't a world of difference between saying methane when you mean nitrogen ... and, say, drunken driving.

But, in general, it's OK to make mistakes. I've said as much to my daughter Emma countless times (as has her Mom), including a stretch when it was a bedtime ritual that I would utter that exact phrase 100 times as fast as possible while I counted and she giggled. That she can be so devastated by her own mistakes -- at age 6 -- is no laughing matter.

Emma knows that her Dad writes stories on the Internet ... and that he makes mistakes. Tonight I'll get to show her the story about the really smart scientist who made (for him) a really silly one. Maybe that will help.

Not sure what to do about the infallible and those unwilling to forgive.

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making mistakes

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Part of science is making mistakes. You learn from them.

Part of science -- an important one -- is admitting them, which is why I wrote that post. I'll add that not everyone who comments is a fan. I get my share of people attacking me in the comments, sometimes fairly, sometimes not, sometimes rather viciously.

I don't have too much issue with people who make mistakes that are in the category I did. It was just a dumb mistake, and they happen. I have a problem with repeat offenders, over time, who don't own up. I can name a dozen (heh, a hundred) politicians and pseudoscientists who fit that category!

-Phil

Regarding those "repeat offenders"

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There comes a point at which repeated "mistakes" morph into something entirely less forgivable: repeated lying.

I hear this argument from funamentalist christians all the time

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They point out every scientific flaw that is ever exposed and do not understand that science is only as perfect as the scientists and researchers involved. Science is wrong ALL THE TIME. The difference between a scientist and a fundamentalist christian is that a scientist is willing to admit he or she is wrong in light of new evidence.

Amen

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(For those who aren't sure what Paul is referring to here, a person doesn't have to be a religious fundamentalist in order to disagree with BAUT.)

Thank you, Paul, for demonstrating that there are people out there that are paying attention ... People who judge ideas on the basis of how they compare to other, less popular, ideas rather than on head counts of how many recognized scientists believe them or how many peer-reviewed journals selectively interpret the data.

Reality check: peer review is not above human culture and psychology. It is in fact a part of it. People who deify peer review treat science as if it is a cult. The Cult of the Big Bang.

Soon enough we will all have

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Soon enough we will all have microchips embedded in our skulls to remove any chance of making mistakes. Enjoy them while they last.

Unfortunately for BAUT and astrophysicists in general ...

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... that's just the first of *MANY* mistakes, and certainly the least important of all of them within the astrophysics community.

But there is a big difference between this and the other mistakes I refer to. Phil and the others at BAUT treat the interpretive sciences as if they are nothing more than an assortment of well-known facts, incontrovertible in their assumptions and speculations. In other words, they are teaching children to memorize. Not understand. This works out great for people at BAUT because it makes them the gatekeepers of information to the public. But it works out horribly for the public because there is no check upon their authority.

The real mistake of the Bad Astronomy group is that they fail to acknowledge to the public that astrophysics -- as are all of the interpretive sciences -- is inherently controversial. And ultimately, *this* is what any intelligent parent or teacher will teach their children about science: it is not an assortment of facts as the people at BAUT will try to convince you of, but instead a historical story about brilliant minds and power struggles; a story about the psychology of humans trying to understand their complex surroundings; a debate (!); and a dialogue between opposing camps that's ultimately judged by experimentation and observation. All of these factors play a very important role in what the public believes to be fact and fiction within the sciences, and without a doubt, *MANY* currently-accepted facts within the sciences right now will ultimately be demonstrated to be fiction. This will happen with or without the assistance of the people at BAUT -- but those of us who have dealt with the BAUT people know that they will drag their feet as long as possible, and refuse to acknowledge those who challenged them, and were right, even when the facts become clear.

So long as Americans teach their children that science is an assortment of facts, we will continue to dig our ourselves into a very deep hole and continue on our path towards becoming a second- or even third-rate country.

The people at BAUT are keen on not letting this message get out, and without the public's awareness, this small group has created a virtual inquisition on the Internet where people who disagree with them are essentially burned at the stake.

So, I urge you people: do not judge Phil and the others at BAUT on the basis of what they say to children. Judge them on how they are affecting the public's recognition that science is inherently controversial. Judge them on what they are saying to the adults ... us.

Wow. That was quite possibly

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Wow.
That was quite possibly the most elegantly stated pile of crap I've ever read.

How much are you paying attention?

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If you don't even read what the heretics of science are saying, then you will remain ignorant of the ability to compare and contrast the models.

If you think that the heretics are being peer-reviewed, then you're not reading the actual heretics.

If you think that only things that are peer-reviewed are worth reading, then you've never allowed yourself to read anything else.

Ultimately, you decide how you want to think: do you believe in authority? Do you *want* to be a part of a social scientific organization? How much does it matter to you? Maybe you just read about science to impress your friends ...

What if this was your job, and you one day woke up and realized that what you were being taught or what everybody around you thought was not right? What if you could prove it? Would you have the courage to stand up and defend your realization?

It used to be that this would be a good thing.

Of the people who do stand up, what do you suppose happens to them when they express themselves? What happens when somebody, for instance, realizes the theory of everything? Do you think that everybody just starts to suddenly listen to them like programmed robots? Isn't it possible that at least part of the problem involves convincing people that their current beliefs are wrong? Isn't there a period where people deny before accepting? Isn't there a need to debate the fundamentals?

What sort of fairy tale land do you live in where the history of science up until now is rich and detailed, and yet everything in our future is a paved path where we are in complete command of the details?

There is no shortage of surprises in the space sciences. The more probes we send out and the more telescopes we build, the more questions arise. If we were on the right path, this wouldn't be happening. When your theory is right, there are no enigmas, and it's not necessary to strain so much in getting your belief to match your observations.

Why do you like the popular models even though they do not perform? Is it perhaps because you know of no other?

???

bitter much?

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Look - all this is fine and dandy but you're going to have to back up your hypothesis with some form of data other than your speculations and opinions. Name a heretic - please - so I can go research that person myself, rather than hinting at some vague global scientific conspiracy where all these supposed heretic scientists get some demented pleasure at making the stupid public believe in some ZANY theory or faked data.

I cannot think of a single benefit that a scientist would get by tricking others into believing an obviously incorrect theory. I mean come on, scientists (especially the rocket type) aren't rolling in the money and women. What's their motivation? "HA HA! I published my heretic paper in this heretic peer reviewed journal! I'm awesome!" Not likely, methinks.

I have two major issues with your previous rant. First, you talk about what if I could prove that everything everyone around me believed was wrong. --- *Prove* --- The beauty of a proof is that it's logically infallible. It's *proven* if all statements that make up the proof are logically infallible. Rarely is anything *proven* in the scientific community. Mathematics, sure. Science, not as often. The purpose of science is to refine our understanding of the natural world by, for example, sending probe after probe into space. Data is a good thing, after all, right?

I recently read an article where some astronomers found a crazy orbiting pulsar. Something that, apparently, defies all the models surrounding binary star forming systems containing pulsars. And rather than hiding this piece of data which doesn't conform to the hundreds of other "normal" binary pulsar star systems (as you seem to be suggesting a heretic would do), this data will undoubtedly be studied to be incorporated into the knowledge of "how nature works." What is wrong with that? You seem to be suggesting that because someone found something new, everything we previously understood should be chucked out the window and we should start over. Ok, so we weren't on the "right path" with our understanding of how these systems form. But aren't we closer to the "right path" now that we see something new and are studying it to figure out how it works? What other way is there?

Secondly, you talk about convincing people that their beliefs are wrong. I do not know about you, but I don't "believe" anything. I accept things based on the data that supports them. You want to change my beliefs? That's easy - just give me a bunch of data that points to some other conclusion. I'm cool with that. But it better be at least as much data that supports your crazy idea as data that exists that supports a competing zany idea. Seems like you are way to hung up on proof by contradiction. "Hey, I found one star system that that formed that shouldn't form based on YOUR theory. That makes you totally wrong and now you need to go away!" I don't subscribe to that sort of all or nothing view of the scientific community.

Now, I know I've missed your point. I know that you are talking about all kinds of stuff that is much more complicated than, say, binary star systems containing pulsars. String theory and all that crazy 11 dimension mumbo jumbo. WIMPS and other stuff that some people are straining to detect. Things that are purely theory and where there doesn't exist actual physical data to necessarily support that theory. And maybe all those people are on the "wrong path". GOOD! That's awesome - maybe they'll learn something that will put them and everyone else on the "right path". That's the nature of science.

Also, feel free to explain how it should work at any time.

The answers are already for the most part out there

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We live in an age of information overload. As a culture, we are struggling to deal with the inordinate amount of information that is out there. Those of us who decide to "go into" the space sciences become constrained in their beliefs by what they're taught. They are only taught conventional theories and models. But, if you look hard enough, even a layperson can over just a few short months identify that unconventional models are performing better than the traditional models. It all boils down to what you allow yourself to read.

There are many serious problems with the conventional astrophysical and quantum-domain models. They are primarily ad hoc models that are bandaged up each time a new anomaly is discovered. This has been going on for decades. Those scientists who advocate a completely fresh approach to these two areas are typically judged on the basis of their models' "differentness" rather than on how well these new models are performing.

Many scientists will, for instance, claim that all aether models are void of any merit because of the Michelson-Morley experiments, but they make such claims without apparent awareness that MM did not lead to a null result, and without any awareness of the work of Dayton Miller. This sort of thing is extremely widespread. You will even see mention within quantum mechanics textbooks that people who believe the Dayton Miller experimental results are "kooks". This is inappropriate, and it denies the inherently controversial nature of the aether debate. They are basically telling you what to believe rather than telling you why to believe it.

"Looking hard enough" involves reading. And not just a little. It can take months or even years of reading before a person can for instance adequately judge a new astrophysical or quantum-domain model. Some models will be so mathematically complex as to be inaccessible to most people. But, the most useful models will be those that simplify our understanding, that make predictive results or that reveal some previously overlooked pattern to reality.

When I speak of heretics, I'm speaking of Wallace Thornhill, Hannes Alfven, Kristian Birkeland (a heretic of his time), Nikola Tesla, Konstantin Meyl, David Thomson (Aether Physics Model), Halton Arp, David Talbott, Dwardu Cardona and Ralph Sansbury, for instance. The large majority of these people remain completely unrecognized for their accomplishments.

The American public still to this day doesn't even understand what Nikola Tesla did (he pulse-width modulated a DC impulse current, aka plasma pinch). Most conventional scientists are not even aware that Tesla created products that used longitudinal electromagnetic waves.

Very few people within the scientific community have read about Konstantin Meyl's modifications to Maxwell's Equations -- even though he makes some excellent points that deserve attention.

Practically nobody is listening to David Thomson right now. He reveals in "Secrets of the Aether" that when you reformulate material characteristics like resonance, permitivity, permeability, conductance, inductance and capacitance in terms of quantum measurements, you will notice that they all possess the term 4*pi in them. Why in the world does structure appear to precede material existence?

Physicists today apply formulas that employ units as if they are nothing more than convention. There is no serious attention being paid to dimensional analysis within physics today. Many times, a unit will be employed within formulas that has no physical meaning. Other times, different units will be equated with one another, as if physical concepts are interchangeable. David Thomson discusses this at great length in "Secrets of the Aether" and he makes excellent arguments that everybody's ignoring. David Thomson makes an excellent, groundbreaking first try at rigorously reformulating all of the units of physics. He can explain what every term within every formula means. He is the antithesis of routine application of formulas -- a widespread practice these days.

For instance, energy defines in terms of the dimension of mass times velocity squared. And yet, the photon is said to have zero mass, as if a physical particle can even have zero mass in the first place. Simple mathematics then suggests that the photon must have zero energy, but this obviously defies reality. People fail to realize that there exist alternative ways to explain such apparent contradictions. Special Relativity is just one. There is little interest in understanding all of the various ways of explaining these enigmas, but in fact they are actually tests for our models.

Thornhill accurately predicted that the Deep Impact Mission would involve two separate flashes -- a prediction that was stunningly different from expectations at the time. The response? He didn't publish a paper on it, so the prediction was not really a prediction at all. This is nonsense. It indicates that he's figured something out. People should listen carefully to those scientists who can claim predictive successes. Few people appear to realize that the OH observed coming off of comets can actually be nothing more than hydrogen protons from the solar wind electrically machining oxygen molecules embedded within the silicates of comets. The Electric Universe group has released numerous publications on comets that are especially poigniant, and yet continue to be ignored or ridiculed by conventional scientists. The idea that comets are in fact some type of dirty snowballs is really a relic by now that space scientists nevertheless cling to. We should clearly be looking to the plasma sciences to understand such phenomenon. After all, from the magnetosphere outwards, space is 99.999% plasma ("charged particles").

At some point between a small iron ball and the Earth itself, conventional wisdom teaches astrophysicists that iron balls stop accumulating and trading electrical charge with their surroundings. And yet, we can now photograph lightning (sprites) going to space and curious non-moving clouds that precede earthquakes.

The notion of quasi-neutrality -- the idea that for some specific volume, all plasmas charge-neutralize -- is nothing more than an assumption. Yet scientists treat this assumption as if it is a physical law. Just look at the macroscopic images of the universe. Recent publications demonstrate that the axes of spiral galaxies do tend to align along the large filaments of the universe. One could make an excellent case, as the Electric Universe theorists do, that these spiral galaxies are somewhat similar to Faraday motors and that their axes are in fact electrically connected by Birkeland Currents. This argument deserves attention because if you dig into it, you will come to see that much recent evidence supports it.

Dwardu Cardona and David Talbott have revolutionized our understanding of historical documents, as they relate to the space sciences. Astrophysicists to this day will assert that there exists no information within mythology. But, they make this assertion out of pure ignorance and hubris. We should always be wary of claims that people of the past were insane when evidence appears to contradict it. Their snap judgment of mythology is a complete dismissal of decades of work and the analytical technique of comparative mythology. Most mythologists cannot claim to understand the languages that mythologies in source documents are written in. Dwardu Cardona's innovation is that he can read many of these source documents within their original languages. His books "God Star" and "Flare Star" are two of the most important works in the study of mythology ever written. Yet, they remain unread by a population that prioritizes belief over written record. The ancients tell us exactly what happened to them in some pretty clear terms. The stories correlate to an incredible degree amongst all of the cultures of the world. We just refuse to listen to what they have to say. It is our own loss.

The people at BAUT unfortunately are more interested in demonstrating why all of these people are cranks that shouldn't be heard out. In truth, they all make great points that deserve attention and debate. We ignore them to our own detriment, but you will never realize it so long as you constrain your reading materials to those that are popular. The answers are out there; you just have to be willing to listen.

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