I doubt the numbers

When it comes to Indian market, the term 'mobile connections' and 'mobile subscribers' need to be defined.

1) It is not uncommon for many individual subscribers to have multiple mobile connections. So the number of mobile connections never can really match the number of mobile subscribers.

To add a further level of complexity...

2) Many of the mobile connections are in 'dormant' state where they represent 'pre-paid' connections which the subscribers don't care to re-charge and go dormant.

3) Many subscribers buy new mobile connections (SIM cards) when they know they are going to be in a different mobile circle (region/city/state) for a considerable time (e.g: several days or weeks) as it is cheaper to use the 'local' plans. Once they return back to their home circle/region, they simply discard the connection. So over a number of years there are many many connections which get 'added' to the count reported by Gartner and other agencies, but are no longer in use.

If you look at the demographics (age groups breakup) and also number of people below poverty line, you can realize how ridiculous the numbers predicted by Gartner (and even other agencies) are.

So it is better to define the market in some different way than with the mobile connections/subscribers. In US, for example, for all these years the bulk of the (post-paid) mobile phone subscribers have been tied to 1 or 2 years contracts which virtually guarantees that the carriers get their monthly payments for that time and the subscribers are 'active' (irrespective of how heavily they use their mobile phone). So the mobile subscriber counts have a different meaning or significnce in US market as compared to Indian market.

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