Does no one else see the "next 4 years" part? In the next 4 years a large number of baby boomers will retire as well, and many of those old school CCIE's are in that category. There should be a post of the rates at which CCIE numbers become inactive. there are 16,000 active CCIE's but numbers are in the 20,000 range, thats 3000 inactive CCIE's in 12 years.

Question is, are these inactive CCIE's still practicing their craft? That would lend to devaluation...

Braindumps will continue to devalue all certifications, not just CCIE. It wasn't that long ago that an MCSE was worth something. Braindumps killed that certification and will end up being the thing that ends the value of the CCIE. Until Cisco comes up with more unique scenarios for the lab, a longer waiting period between tries or limits the number of attempts, there will be more and more "paper" ccie's. CCIE72xx

Take a look at the percentage increase by county or geo region and you will have your answer. If you do not pass in one country or test center - try another! Maybe the brain dumps are better someplace else. I know security ccies that have no idea how traffic passes thru a firewall.

There's always the addage of lies, damn lies or statistics... You get the picture.

First, I'd say your math is a little flawed there by treating the same seats available for multiple CCIE stats as regular ones up there because not all candidates are or will be multiple CCIEs.

In the end, the important part (especially as everyone's comments seem to have leaned towards Dynamips and BrainDumps) is not whether or not there are a lot of CCIEs. The important part is the pass rate.

Believe me, the discussions of "oh my god there are too many CCIEs" and "what's the rate of doubling numbers?" and "Will the world end at 10,000 CCIEs?" and a number of other similar Doomsday concepts is NOT new!

I got my CCIE in 1999 and have watched the statistics over the years. The key to watch is the success rate (e.g. how many average attempts versus passes in the lab). Bummer is that Cisco doesn't exactly divulge that information.

But that is the part that THEY are working with, and the numbers have remained relatively stable and consistent over the almost-ten-years I've been paying attention to things.

So is it popular? Yup, absolutely. Is it going to H-E-double-toothpicks in a handbasket? Nope, not at all.

Sorry that it's not quite as elite or unique as it used to be, due to the quantity of people who have it increasing so much.

If it's any consolation though, according to Forbes magazine, being a Millionaire or even a BILLIONAIRE is not as rare/unique/elite as it used to be. Now, I'd really rather give those clubs a try over a CCIE, but we each have to deal with our own sets of issues. :)

Relax, don't worry about how many there are. Worry about how you are going to convince the world that you are cooler than the x-thousand of other people with the same CCIE designation that you have.

As Cisco pushes for more CCIEs out there (in case anyone has forgotten or overlooked the roots of ANY certification, it's driven by a concept of marketing!) there are definitely going to be business things like more seats available, better training available, etc.

C'est la vie. And yes, I'm kinda-sorta part of that issue being a CCIE trainer. But on the flip side, people that I train will KNOW their stuff. So it's not a matter of a quantity of hacks and wannabes out there, but a higher number of certified and knowledgeable individuals.

Will there be a market cap? A supply/demand issue? I'm sure there will be. Markets shift. Right now, there's a large demand and market reacting accordingly. On the flip side, technology itself changes, increases and fluctuates every year. Presumably the folks getting their CCIE today are not ALL going to sit around stagnant in their learning and be stuck with whatever comes their way.

So anyway... I have rambled a bit. Bottom line is that I think your Doomsday math is a touch flawed, but at the same time I don't see a problem with a larger quantity of CCIEs out there!

Scott