According to RBC Capital Markets, Motorola believes global VOD subscribers (Video on Demand) could grow from 58M in 2007 to 165M in 2011.
RBC Capital Markets Managing Director - Mark Sue commented to yours truly:
 "There's a lot of positive things going on in Motorola's non-handset segments specifically, Broadband Home Solutions." |
"And although we're not sure what the division will be called after the spin, the outlook, driven by increased competition between cable and telco, remains healthy."
"We recently hosted John Burke, SVP and GM, who outlined the higher sales activity for BHS this year and improving operating margins YoY."
"For 2008, Motorola still expects Home & Mobility Networks to grow in the single digits with improved operating margin."
"Motorola is seeing increased opportunities overseas, specifically in Asia with positive growth trends in China and Japan."
"In North America, capex from the cable operators currently seems centered on voice and DVR functionality with an increasing amount of dollars focused on HD Video and VOD."
"Beyond these trends, Motorola sees switched digital video (SDV) to be deployed at varying rates."
"DOCSIS 3.0 will provide a positive tailwind for the industry and we're in the very early stages of the industry wide upgrade according to Motorola."
"Rapid growth in HD is expected to continue as HD households grow at a CAGR of 42% over the next three years."
"Total HD STB and DVR shipments may grow at a CAGR of 39% over the same time period."
"Motorola maintains its leading market share in cable and IPTV boxes and believes the total pie is growing so a win by the telco does not mean one less STB for cable."
"Motorola believes global VOD subscribers could grow from 58M in 2007 to 165M in 2011."
"And with broader broadband adoption in international markets, the DOCSIS 3.0 rollout may be sustainable for the next several years."
"For important trend analysis of video as it relates to the telcos, cable, and the web, please join RBC for its annual Video Summit on September 9, 2009 in NYC."
"There's a lot of re-org going on and Home & Networks Mobility was segmented in three units: Broadband Home Solutions (digital video, IP video and broadband solutions), Cellular Networks (CDMA, GSM and iDen) and Broadband Access Solutions (4G)."
"Despite the ongoing changes, Motorola's Broadband Home Solutions seems to be showing consistent strong execution."
"Motorola is trading, excluding net cash, at 0.5x our CY09 revenue estimates."
"Off our earnings estimates, Motorola shares are trading at ~25x our CY09 estimates that remain highly variable."
"Our price target is $10 and represents 0.5x our CY08 revenue estimate ex-cash, below the wireless large-cap peer group average due to the ongoing challenges at the company."
"Our rating remains Sector Perform, Above Average Risk."
"Risks to the shares' ability to reach our price target include a slowdown in carrier and consumer spending, rising competition and pricing pressures, and poor company execution."
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