At least week's Mobile Internet World conference is Boston, Intel's Anand Chandrasekhar commented, in his keynote, that he didn't believe that the rapidly-emerging category of mobile PCs known as MIDs, netbooks, nettops, and whatever will replace the notebook PC. Chandrasekhar is SVP and GM of Intel's Ultra Mobility Group, which has the charter to design and build the Atom processor and related technologies that enable micro-notebooks and similar products in the first place, so his position on this matter was a little curious.
I can, however, understand this statement, even though I don't agree with it at all. Notebooks (let's call these mobile PCs that run a big fat OS and have a screen size of 12 inches or greater) are mainstream devices today, and have replaced their desktop counterparts for most mobile professionals and many more. I'll grant that notebook prices have fallen considerably, to the point where MIDs and such do not necessarily have a price advantage - that is, until one considers the total cost of ownership. Assuming one runs LINUX, TCO should be a lot lower than with a notebook because the cost of buying and using the OS is low, and, assuming one uses OpenOffice or a similar free office suite, the cost of application software is also low. I've contended for some time that MIDs can indeed replace traditional notebooks, as they have for me in many (but not all, yet, anyway) cases. And I suspect that, based on his other comments and the good-sized array of tiny products he showed, Chandrasekhar at least partially believes this as well. But will most people end up with a notebook and a MID and a smartphone/platform phone? No, that's too much; something has to give, and I think it will be the notebook, at least for many. If all that's need is a little storage, some connectivity, a browser, and basic PIM/personal productivity tools, mobile users will ditch the notebook and save - and note that MIDs and their brethren optimize not just for cost, but also for size and weight. That's perhaps an even bigger savings!
I suspect that Chandrasekhar also has to toe the party line; after all, what would happen to Intel if the mainstream Wintel market started to head south? It's not going that direction in the near term, but in the longer run, though, Intel has to be prepared for a world where mainstream mobile devices are both simple and cheap, with a corresponding mass appeal - exactly what Chandrasekhar is trying to do.
Mathias is a principal at Farpoint Group, a wireless advisory firm in Ashland, Mass.
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