Apple at CES 2010? The rumors say yes, but my heart says no.

Why Apple won't be showing up at CES 2010

There have been rumors floating around suggesting that Apple is planning to attend CES in 2010, and according to sources at AppleInsider, Apple's attendance is a done deal. On its face, this rumor is absurd for a variety of reasons. After all, Apple left Macworld, which also takes place in January, precisely because it became unfeasible to release new and amazing products at an arbitrary time in January. Phil Schiller even noted to David Pogue that a January product showcase does not mesh well at all with any of Apple's product cycles. Also, didn't Apple say that the popularity of Apple Stores have all but made the need for an Apple presence at Macworld obsolete? And doesn't this all seem like a bad April Fools Joke?

But what if it isn't? What if Apple, by some magical force beyond our comprehension, is actually planning on attending CES next year? What could it possibly have to gain?

Some have suggested that by attending CES, Apple will be better positioned to contrast its products against its competitors. For example, convention goers would be able to see for themselves the difference between an Apple iPhone and a new smartphone from Samsung, for example. While somewhat intriguing, this theory doesn't hold much weight and isn't Apple's style at all. Apple believes that the inherent quality of its products are self-evident. Going through all the hoopla of attending CES just to show a bunch of reporters and tech-geeks the differentiating features between a new iPod Touch and a competing media device seems ridiculous.

Moreover, Apple has increasingly been moving more and more towards making announcements on its own schedule, at its own events, where it can control all aspects of the presentation, and where it can better control its own hype. Apple doesn't need CES to create a splash anymore than it needs Macworld. Keep in mind that the most successful Apple product of all time, the iPod, wasn't introduced at Macworld, but rather at an Apple-sponsored event in 2001. That said, Apple would have nothing to gain by attending CES unless it felt it could steal the show, blow all of its competitors out of the water, and grab every headline in every tech article. This, of course, only raises more questions about what Apple might have up its sleeve if it is, in fact, attending CES in 2010. Might it be the mythical Apple branded HDTV we've heard rumblings about in the past? Some sort of upgraded iPhone with a magical battery that never needs recharging? A Mac Mini that can cook you dinner?

Adding fuel to the Apple/CES rumor was a recent announcement from the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) confirming that there will be a Mac themed exhibit at CES 2010 for Apple-centric manufacturers. A spokesman for CEA, however, wasn't willing to go so far as to announce that Apple itself would officially be attending.

Even if Apple doesn't attend CES next year, it will be interesting to see how CES reaching out to Mac manufacturers will affect Macworld, which has promised to soldier on despite Apple’s decision to pull out. CES and Macworld are scheduled for the same week next year, so manufacturers will be facing some tough decisions.

In the end, though, Apple at CES is so absurd that I won't believe it until Apple makes an official announcement and sends me a personalized confirmation email from Steve Jobs with a verifiable digital signature. Attending CES contradicts every statement Apple made about its decision to leave Macworld in the first place, and goes against its recent history of abandoning tradeshows altogether. Sure, Apple might be inclined to attend CES to deliver a monster announcement, but it makes more sense for Apple to do that at one of its own events. Lastly, one of the reasons Apple left Macworld was because expectations got out of control - Apple attending CES would only set those expectations even higher.

The most rationale explanation for the Apple/CES rumor comes from John Gruber over at DaringFireball. He speculates that rumors are rooted in CES's attempt to lure over Mac manufacturers, and what better way to do that than to create whispers about Apple attending? Indeed.

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