Earlier this week I had a conversation with an industry analyst regarding Cisco's strategy and it got me thinking about who has the most potential to eat Cisco's lunch.
My conclusion?
Why?
Well, a couple of things, so lets go through my list:
1. Infonetics Research Optical Network Hardware Report:
Huawei takes the lead in optical network hardware market in 1Q09
Preliminary results from Infonetics’ Optical Network Hardware report show that Huawei increased its revenue market share to 23% for the first quarter of 2009, just ahead of Alcatel-Lucent, which maintains the overall lead on an annualized basis.
"Since 2002, the optical network market has grown at a 8% compound annual growth rate, but for most vendors it looked more like 6% because Huawei absorbed a significant portion of the annualized gains. I don’t see this trend ending anytime soon, and if it doesn’t, Huawei could be the overall market leader for 2009," said Andrew Schmitt - Infonetics Research's directing analyst at for Optical.
The report also shows worldwide optical network hardware sales dropped 22% sequentially in 1Q09, from $4.0 billion to $3.1 billion.
2. Cisco's Disjointed Management Structure and Strategy:
It's my personal opinion that the late John Lennon balanced out his songwriting companion Paul McCartney's flaky songwriting tendencies and vice versa, much as I believe that former Cisco Chairman John Morgridge most likely balanced out Cisco CEO John Chambers and vice versa.
Cisco's new management structure without Morgridge balancing out Chambers:

For all its bravado about its new management structure detailed above, Cisco's financial results do not appear to be immune to the same ailments that trouble most businesses who simply have "ordinary" management structures. For example, during the first 9 months of its FY09, Cisco net sales plummeted $1.59 billion while simultaneously Cisco net income sank $985 million.
Perhaps Cisco is no longer Cisco?
But instead a wannabe Google or a wannabe Apple because it seems to me that Cisco believes the grass is greener or dare I say, way cooler in other yards!
In my mind, Cisco could be drifting away from what made it successful because its M&A leader Ned Hooper also happens to be its consumer leader.
Ned Hooper - Cisco SVP of Corp Dev and Consumer Group discusses Cisco's strategic direction:
3. A Dysfunctional Cisco Channel Partner Model:
Today in my opinion, Cisco certainly has no problem throwing important partners like HP and IBM under the bus, nor does Cisco have a problem making acquistions that do not add value to its channel partners.
Additonally, it also appears to me that Cisco's much ballyhooed Partner Talent Portal is a total flop!
Earlier this week I learned that many Cisco channel partners did not get an invite to next month's Cisco Partner Summit in Boston.
Curious, I contacted Cisco for an explanation and here's the response:
"With more than 60,000 Cisco channel partners around the world, it isn’t realistic to invite all of our partners to Cisco Partner Summit. The 'live' event is primarily focused on Cisco Gold, Silver and Premier Certified Partners. We anticipate that 1,500 partner executives will join Cisco in Boston, with thousands more attending virtual through Cisco Partner Space, our virtual environment."
Feedback from a Cisco partner regarding Cisco's explanation:
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4. In 2008, Huawei the Plumber Grew Sales Almost $1 Billion More Than Cisco the Consumer Chaser:
Huawei 2008 Financial Results:
Source: Huawei
Huawei the plumber grew sales in 2008 by $5.48 billion and net income by $194 million.
Cisco 2008 Financial Results:
Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Cisco the consumer chaser in 2008 grew sales by $4.6 billion and net income by a whopping $719 million (much of it sheltered from U.S. taxes).
Naturally, I'm totally stunned by Huawei's 2008 success while earlier today BradReese.Com Sales Manager Reggie Grant sent to me the following Barron's web page link:
Time for Empathetic Capitalism
It's about Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao:
"The capitalists who create value for enough people by truly and sustainably enhancing their well-being will be rewarded."
Imagine if you can the totally improbable:
Cisco having its lunch eaten by Chinese Capitalists who truly understand Capitalism!
Related story:
Huawei moves up in networking's big leagues
What's your opinion, does Huawei have the most potential to eat Cisco's lunch?
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Huawei sell more ? you know why ?
i agree with you that Huawei sell network gears more than cisco.i am from iran and regarding to the US sanctions , OFAC and... , we can't buy cisco products.so iranian telecom and too many other ISP and network provider push poor performance/features Huawei to customers.there is nobody in iran that prefer Huawei over cisco , but when you can't buy cisco gears and if you can , you don't have even IOS patch/upgrade TAC support , there is no choise.other restrictions like exporting products with crypto support(IPSEC VPN / SSL / SSH ) is the other problem for country that is not in sanctions , but becuase cisco should follow up us goverments policy , these are cumbersume to buy cisco products that support even DES.who will trust telent for device mangment even if you manage them on OOB network.from other hand you buy crappy Huawei that is fully loaded with SSH/SSL/IPSEC (even AES-256) without any additional license or restrictions.something else : why us gov still make export restriction for device/image with crypto support ? why you can run linux box with full crypto support (OPENSSL/OPENSSH/OPENSWAN ,...) that most of them can be downloaded from repositories even is US (like Centos) but if you want to have SSH support on IOS/Frameware , you are sucked ? this policy only make more rooms for crappy company like Huawei that don't offer anything more than putting linux on low end hardware (i prefer using DD-WRT over ugly Huawei and Huawei like vendor).
Is Huawei Following the Wal-Mart Store Strategy?
Thank you for your response from Iran.
It appears Huawei is following the Wal-Mart store strategy:
Wal-Mart avoided "detection" from Sears, K-Mart and other large retailers for years by opening up stores in rural areas underserved by the "established" retailers.
Huawei is opening up shop in countries underserved by Cisco!
You obviously have an issue with the "quality" of Huawei equipment. However, should Huawei improve its quality would you then be favorable to choosing Huawei over Cisco?
Sincerely,
Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished
that is not all about quality
Dear Brad,
one of the other reason (beside US Sanctions) that most biggest organizations in Iran buy from Chinese company like Huawei is there are too many debate in Iran focused about the possibility of high-tech US company (included cisco) may put backdoor in their products and that it is a real threat to our national security. for that reason they buy cheep products form chinese tech.as a INFOSEC i believed that threat (distribution attack) is more notable from Chinese tech , while there have black history on that issues. I prefer to using tech from company that is more mature , stable and give me more standard features. Sadly most network infrastructure in Iranian telecommunication run by Huawei . how can I be sure that they are not eavesdropping ? From the security perspective I prefer cisco over Huawei (even with the mentioned risks) . I can find easly cisco security center page/portal that show all vulnerability , workaround and … whatever about my cisco gears.did you know that Huawei have such service ? how you informed about your ugly Huawei DSL router have vulnerability that allow remote attacker access your network ? Nobody .maybe Chinese People's Liberation Army know about that.nobody don’t forget the cribber spying on too many embassy around the world that drived by Chinese governments.
thank
Security issues scuttle Bain/Huawei bid for 3Com
Security issues scuttle Bain/Huawei bid for 3Com
Basically the U.S. is doing the same thing to Huawei that Iran is doing to Cisco, citing fear of "security backdoors" that would allow cyberattacks or espionage.
What amazes me is that in 2008 Huawei sales grew $880 million more than Cisco sales!
In my opinion, Huawei is obviously capable of eating Cisco's lunch.
Sincerely,
Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished
No, it's not your father's Cisco.
I just left Cisco after about a decade of working there, and I can tell you that the idiotic 'council' structure has contributed mightily to the increasing fragmentation and over-decentralization of an already-fragmented, overly-decentralized 'company'.
We've all heard the jokes about products designed by commitees - well, that's how all Cisco products are designed, these days. And these councils are used by upper management to disclaim responsibility for failures and problems; executives will tout successes which they had no role in bringing about, but can use the existence of the councils to absolve themselves of all blame for the problems and failures for which they are most assuredly responsible.
There's a feeling inside Cisco that most of the 'adults' have left, and that the company has strayed very, very far from its roots in product and technology engineering excellence into the realm of MBAed marketeers. Ned Hooper's idiotic acquisition of Flip for a cool half billion, and the laughable cloud computing 'strategy' just announced ('Universal Service Delivery') which consists of sticking a CRS-1 in front of a Nexus 7000, with some servers behind that, are two prime examples.
I'm glad to be out - it was just heartbreaking to watch the degeneration of this once-proud company, the exemplar of all that was good about the Silicon Valley, into a disorganized mess of executive profiteering and engineering via press release. Hopefully, the downturn will shake things out and Cisco will regain its bearings, at some point, but it's not likely as long as John Chambers remains as a totally Wall Street-focused, otherwise-disengaged CEO.
Story on Tuesday
You have given me great information for my story on Tuesday with regard to Cisco under the management of John Chambers.
I absolutely believe that former Cisco Chairman John Morgridge "balanced out" John Chambers and without Morgridge around to "check" Chambers, Cisco appears to be doomed!
Stay-tuned for my story on Tuesday and thank you for your excellent feedback.
Sincerely and most gratefully yours,
Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished
Are you bipolar Brad..? ;)
I have worked in the past for one of Cisco wholesale partners, and would have to say, that the only guy that makes any money out of selling a fair sized Cisco transaction... is the Cisco AM...
I have given up on the Cisco channel a while back, and have moved onto selling profitable networking solutions of other flavor's... The partner program today...is what it is... To cry about how it may, or may not treat you, is to fail to look at the other considerable opportunities in the industry today...?
I agree with aspects of the last post and personally think that the Cisco monster needs to break itself up into separate companies, to regain the dynamic's of less management and marketing bloat... More along the dynamics of what Richard Branson and the Virgin Group have archived....
On the flip side... Does Huawei have a channel...? That even looks slightly similar to what Cisco has constructed...??? Would you trust them in a business deal that you need to partner with someone...?
This week you are pointing out that an offshore, non US based, non US tax creating company, that has none of the baggage of the regulations of a US listed company, is the brand that is going to do the damage. I'm not sure, but this kind of sounds like cheerleading....?
....and last week you are complaining that Cisco is moving development of key IP and engineering jobs offshore in an effort to make more money, and cut US engineering jobs... (remember, from afar, the US Auto industry looks like the shining example of what all modern industries should not be...so get a grip, if it can be done cheaper elsewhere, it probably will be...that's called business..)
So...is there a chance that a component of why Cisco is expanding offshore... is to remain competitive ...? ..from the threat of companies like Huawei...?
Brad, I care little for Cisco, but could you consider a bit more objectivity...?
A bit more objectivity
Fortunately for me, Network World readers provide the "objectivity" that I lack and that's why I'm so thankful for your comment and as well as other reader comments.
Pointing out that Huawei sales in 2008 grew $880 million more than Cisco sales grew, clearly shows that Huawei has momentum on its side.
Huawei management appears to be "out executing" Cisco in the "plumbing business," a business that in my opinion appears not to be "sexy enough" for Cisco management to focus on.
Huawei is driving sales growth better than Cisco and I disagree with your view that Huawei benefits from not being a U.S. company. In my opinion, Cisco has the advantage over Huawei precisely because Cisco is a U.S. company.
It's also my opinion that Cisco outsourcing U.S. jobs overseas shows Cisco management is not the "sharp outfit" it would like everyone to believe it is, but rather just a bunch of shortsighted managers who lack the "vision and imagination to capitalize" on the advantages of being a U.S. company.
With Huawei sales outgrowing those of Cisco, it certainly calls into question Cisco's strategic direction as well as the management capabilities of Cisco's executive team.
As far as trusting Huawei, well somebody is trusting Huawei when its 2008 sales grew $880 million more than Cisco's 2008 sales grew!
Sincerely,
Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished
Cisco shooting itself in the foot
Thanks for a great article! I have not laughed so much about a geek topic in quite a few years. What saddens me the most about the general topic is the wide open failure to enforce anti-trust laws allowing the big royal monopoly folks to gobble up competition and thus make the USA less and less a player in the markets we invented, we being the taxpayers. A great deal of the underlying patents were paid for by us, as in the case of the Integrated Circuit attributed to TI or Intel when the work was done in secret by/for the Air Force and others.
You're welcome
You're welcome.
I'm publishing a story tomorrow about Cisco under the management of John Chambers with a "surprising interpretation."
It dovetails nicely with this story regarding Huawei eating Cisco's lunch.
Sincerely,
Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished
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