Back in January 2009, I wrote a post entitled Pre-Conceived Notions, about the probable success of the Palm Pre and WebOS, based upon their strategy versus that of Google/OHA and Android. Now that the Pre is out and about, let's revisit some of those “notions” and see where the Pre may go from here.
First, it is unclear who will be able to use WebOS. Certainly, Palm will, for the Pre and presumably future devices. While some bloggers claim it will be open source, the Palm press release for WebOS conspicuously fails to mention this, nor can I find any solid evidence of an open source intention. Even short of open source, it is unclear if Palm would license WebOS to other hardware makers.
There are still no signs that WebOS will be used by anyone but Palm, let alone be released as open source. This means that the only WebOS devices, at least in the near term, will be those released by Palm themselves. Since Palm has never seemed to have the engineering bandwidth to churn out new products at the pace of Blackberry, one presumes Palm is aiming at an iPhone strategy: build a few slick devices and the world will beat a path to your door.
Of course, the iPhone is evidence that you do not need multiple manufacturers, or even multiple carriers per market, to grab significant market share. Palm is a nice firm. Apple is a consumer marketing juggernaut. To assume that Palm can replicate Apple's success would be quite the leap.
Palm, like Google/OHA, is not necessarily looking to trump Apple and the iPhone. Palm is looking for a chunk of the market, one that they can sustain and keep WebOS relevant in the eyes of developers and users. There, the openness of competing platforms may help, as WebOS clones seem likely for Android and Symbian, providing greater bang for the WebOS development buck. Of course, at the same time, that reduces the odds of a “killer app” making Palm devices stand out, since such an app is more likely to be made available on other mobile platforms.
The same can be said of Android: the goal is a sustainable chunk of the market, not necessarily to become #1. But Android has strategic advantages over WebOS, such as having multiple manufacturers pushing Android into more devices, including things other than smartphones.
The net: the Pre and WebOS may not be as open as Android (or, soon, Symbian), won't have the consumer marketing engine of iPhone, and may not wind up with any WebOS-only "killer apps".
In fact, right now, the WebOS SDK (“Mojo”) is still in a private beta, even after the device has shipped. Again, Palm seems to be playing with Apple's deck (iPhone shipped well before the first SDK; Android's SDK shipped well before the first device). Unfortunately for Palm, Apple holds many of the high trump cards.
This does not mean the Pre is toast, but Palm's long-term strategy is still murky at best.
That has not changed, so tune back in six months from now, and we will see where things stand.
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