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Mitchell Ashley

Apple's Window To Gain PC Market Share Is Narrowing

Windows 7 Won't Be Like Vista and Mac OS X Isn't Going Away Either

By Mitchell Ashley on Wed, 06/17/09 - 4:14am.

My recent blog post about the new Apple OS X Snow Leopard release not being enough to “beat” Windows 7 sparked quite a response from many Apple users. I understand that, when users are passionate about a product, brand and/or a company, as so many Apple users are. Apple’s always been successful at building loyalty with their customers.

But that doesn’t change my opinion about Windows 7. Just because Vista failed doesn’t mean Windows 7 will, and being a loyal Apple user and customer doesn’t alone make Windows 7 another warmed over Vista. As Windows 7 gains significant adoption amongst Microsoft users, as I believe it will, the opportunity for OS X to gain significant market share will become more difficult than during the days of Vista. That doesn’t mean Windows 7 will sway Apple users over to a Windows platform. It would take a pretty significant misstep by Apple and that’s not very likely to happen, especially in the near term with Snow Leopard's focus on the fundamentals of performance, optimization, and stability.

I thought one of the comments I received to the blog post about Snow Leopard was particularly well stated and thought out. So I’m reposting the comment, and my response to it, here on the main part of my blog. Both are a tad bit lengthy, more than is usually best suited for a blog post, but I think you’ll find it worth your time to read.

Comment by Anon…

I was first introduced to your articles when you wrote about how the iPhone was doomed to failure and how the Windows mobile operating system was going to dominate the market. I then saw your articles predicting how Apple is continually making missteps at evolving its operating system.

Apple got me to try its OSX when it introduced Boot Camp. Apple immediately made me a fan of its operating system with its stability, ease of use, and customer service. Actually, the Apples OSX exceeded all of my expectations. Having grown up on Windows, I had no idea computers could run so reliably and easily. I’ve now upgraded my operating system by two ‘Cats’. What I found to be amazing is that the upgraded OS versions worked faster than the previous version on the same hardware. Now I understand the next version is going to be even faster and take up even less hard drive space! When I upgraded my Windows operating system, I had to upgrade my processor, hard drive, ram, and all of the other stuff to support the processor, hard drive, and ram.

When it comes to smartphones, I really don’t know any statistics but it seems all the talk is about the Blackberry, Pre, and iPhone. The Windows mobile operating system does not appear to me making any sort of headlines. I abandoned my Windows mobile device for a simple cell phone because it was more reliable. My nightmare experience caused me to have great reservations about ever buying a new smartphone. iPhone then exceeded all of my expectations. What’s really nice about the iPhone, is that the first and second generation iPhone owners (I am a first generation iPhone user) will get to enjoy all of the non-hardware related upgrades. I don’t have the hardware that supports AGPS, digital compass or 3G, but I will enjoy all of the other software related upgrades. When I had my Windows mobile device, they wanted me to pay for the upgrade that was going to current version work properly.

What I also like is that when I have a question about my Apple products, I can go into a store and have my questions answered by a real person, and believe it or not, its face-to-face.

You’ve made a lot of comments indicating Apple is going to fail and Apple failed to grow by the Vista misstep (By the way Apple’s sales increased during the recession and the Vista release while HP and Dell both experienced sales declines during the same period.). Apple seems to be offering a premium product that justifies it price with reliability and customer service, lest not forget with a touch of ‘Style’. Apple appears to be continually improving their products by making them more user friendly and reliable, not by adding features that don’t work or don’t need. Moreover, Apple does not make its older generation users feel like 3rd class citizens.

Microsoft lost me as a customer. I constantly hear of Windows users becoming Mac users. I rarely hear Mac users voluntarily become a Windows users. What you and Microsoft are failing to do is convincing me to give Windows another look. I am surprised Windows has not lost you as a customers since you seem to only have negative things to say about them except when you compare them against Macs. Tell me how utterly reliable Windows is, tell me how easy it is to maintain Windows, tell me something positive. Features don’t mean anything if they don’t work, especially if its a copy of a Mac feature. If you can’t tell me anything positive, don’t worry none of my friends who have ‘Switched‘ to Mac can reflect on anything positive about their Windows experience, either.

My response...

Thank you for your thoughtful and well stated views on OS X, Windows 7, SmartPhone OS's, etc.

I think if you re-read my blog post, you'll see that I'm not predicting the demise of OS X. Far from it. The point of view I'm offering is that Apple's opportunity to continue gaining significant market share from Windows is closing. I offer that perspective primarily for the following reasons:

* Apple's desktop market share has in fact receded during Q4 2008 and Q1 of 2009, from 8% to 7.4% according to a Gartner report in April 09. This while the overall PC market experienced a slowdown of 6.5%. (I don't know if Apple, Windows and Linux are all experiencing the same % slow down or if it varies.)

* My experiences with the Windows 7 beta and RC led me to believe Windows 7 will be accepted by consumers and businesses, as compared to the low adoption of Windows Vista. Those experiences are consistent with what many others testing Windows 7 have stated. The big unanswered question is whether Windows XP users will see enough reason to switch.

* The 2nd generation Vista kernel shipped in Windows Server 2008 has proven its stability and reliability as a server OS. Windows 7 is the 3rd generation of this kernel OS, which is in part why the Windows 7 beta and RC have been well received.

OS X is great OS and has proven much more stable and reliable than Vista. That's clear and not in dispute. Is Windows 7 as stable and reliable as OS X? Given Microsoft's history, probably not, but it is much improved and will likely prove to be stable enough to be accepted by most Microsoft customers.

The great thing about blogging is it’s an opportunity to put your thoughts, ideas and viewpoints out there in the bright light of day for all to discuss, debate and review. Blog posts would be uninteresting if I didn't. The "doomed" blog post I wrote a year and a half ago has not born out as predicted. The BB Storm also disappointed. Apple and the iPhone have proven to reshape the market and competitors’ Smartphone products. When I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I'll publicly state it. I now own an iPhone and I love it. It's the phone I recommend when asked and I also create software for the iPhone.

I understand your disappointment in Microsoft and how they lost you as a customer years ago. Being an early adopter and unofficial evangelist for Apple, since my first Apple II Plus and Mac Plus computers, I was very disappointed in Apple’s first generation OS… so much so that I migrated to Windows. Since Apple’s move to OS X, I haven’t switched back to the Mac as my primary platform but I again own an Apple computer, write software, and use Apple iPhone and iPod products. I can’t predicte you will someday change your views about Microsoft and become a Microsoft customer again, as I have for Apple’s products, but my experience shows it's possible.

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Apple never had a chance to

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By Constable Odo (not verified) on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 9:13am.

Apple never had a chance to begin with even if Vista was a dog. There aren't any large corporations that would be changing over the Macs en masse. The bean counters certainly wouldn't rationalize it and IT would never allow it to happen. IT will never change from Microsoft unless they throw out all the old guard. This is not about productivity, this is about the headaches of change. The infrastructure hates Apple and the change it would bring about.

Users want Apple, but that clearly isn't enough. So Apple didn't miss any chance. It never existed. The corporate choice was only between Windows XP and Windows Vista and Windows XP was the easiest decision since no change had to be made at all. In time if Windows 7 is just a slight bit better than Windows XP, the upgrades will begin with no thought ever being given to OSX. Apple will never get into the corporate world. You can even see the stiff resistance given to the iPhone.

Isn't that the truth!

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By lantzn (not verified) on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 4:07pm.

Had the iPhone in it's exact form come from another organization IT would probably have loved it and it would be replacing Blackberrys in droves. But because it's made by Apple, oh heavens no, we IT staff know that it is inferior and not for business. It's a toy just like the Mac.

At this years WWDC they mentioned during the keynote that OS X users had climbed to 25 million users from the release of OS X to 2007 (5 years). But in the past 2 years it's climbed to 75 million! That's a huge gain in users. I've been a Mac users since 1986 and it's always been mentioned that Mac users were no more then 20 million worldwide so that statement really amazed me. It's a good time to be a Mac user.

User base

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By Anon (not verified) on Thu, 06/18/2009 - 2:29am.

The 75 million figure is trickery btw.

http://community.winsupersite.com/blogs/paul/archive/2009/06/08/wwdc-2009-time-for-a-reality-check.aspx

The real number is 35 million. Not that 25->35 isn't a big gain in two years.

Enterprise

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By Neil Anderson (not verified) on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 7:44pm.

Don't worry ... the old IT guard is busy dying.

Want security - think anything but Windows

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By Czar (not verified) on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 9:28am.

Our company is moving to Linux and Apple computers because we want to get away from the ubiquitous virus, spyware and trojan issues which plague the predominate Windows platform. Can IT take care of these issues? Of course it can, however we choose not to afford the high total cost of ownership which presents itself with this platform.

We work in the energy generation and transmission field. Given the threats to security and our country's well being, we'll be seeking any software which isn't Windows based. Certainly developing energy industry software for the Windows platform is easy and it show with the adoption of it in the energy field. However, purchasing such software does a disservice to the security of our industry.

Certainly developing and using software based on Unix can be more complex and cumbersome, however security is an overriding issue which is of paramount importance in the electrical field. I'd encourage anyone working in this field to make a switch because it's common sense to do so.

Snow Leopard vs. Windows 7

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By Chuck (not verified) on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 10:03am.

The gist of your argument is that Windows 7 is not broken, as Vista was. Well, first, we don't know, since it isn't released, although the RC looks quite good under VMWare on my Macbook Pro. I never bothered to try Vista, but definitely prefer Win7 to XP. Since there is no similar public beta process for Snow Leopard, I haven't tried that at all.

However, regardless of the technical merits, the pricing and version structure of Windows 7 sets up the perfect marketing rejoinder from Apple on the price/performance issue that Microsoft has been using in the "Laptop Hunter" ads. Apple is providing a $29 upgrade price for all Leopard users, while Microsoft has a complicated----and more expensive---multi-version scheme. Pricing isn't released yet by Microsoft, but they appear to have a problem.

Microsoft is hoist by their own petard. After making the point that consumers should buy on the basis of price, they've done no favor to their hardware "partners" by directing buyers to the cheapest laptops, which have thin to zero profit margins. I'm sure Dell, HP, et al are just so pleased to have buyers directed to products where they make very little profit.

Now, Microsoft has been undercut on the price of the product that they actually make----operating system software---by their competitor, Apple.

That is not a good spot for Microsoft.

Apple has a real opportunity here, and I think they'll use it. Not only do they have the perfect price rejoinder, they have a MUCH better ad agency than Microsoft does.

It will be interesting to see if Apple uses this opportunity. With effective advertising, this is a useful tactic. It has nothing to do with the technical attributes of the two systems, but strikes me as a nice Judo move for Apple to put on Microsoft.

(BTW, I do admire a commentator who'll admit it when he was wrong. I was one who said that Apple would never, never, never, cold-day-in-hell never, switch to Intel chips. Wrong, and I'm now glad they did.)

Intel and BSD, who would have thunk it

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By Mitchell Ashley on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 12:11pm.

Thanks Chuck for your comments. I was also one who longed for Apple to get off the Motorola chip and move to Intel. That, and moving to the Next kernel (FreeBSD + NetBDS based) were two things I wish Apple had done long before the transition from OS 9 to OS X. But you know, they did it, and both decisions have proven extremely strategic and effective.

The transition from OS 9 to OS X wasn't necessarily an easy one, either. It wasn't the debacle Vista was but I remember many friends holding out or struggling with moving to OS X when it came out. Eventually compatible software, updates to OS X, Unix/BSD features, Intel hardware, and many other improvements between OS 9 and OS X caused users to migrate. In some ways that's the process XP's transition to Windows 7 is going through, along with a detour down a very bumpy Vista road.

Also, one thing to point out about Apple's advertising prowess, Microsoft has a pretty decent ad agency on their team (I'm assuming they are still with Alex Bogusky's firm). Though the "I'm a Mac" ads are a tough act to follow, I wouldn't write off Microsoft's advertising chops quite yet (despite the Seinfeld ad goofs.)

Thanks again for commenting.

Mitchell Ashley

Converging Network, LLC
Personal blog: http://www.theconvergingnetwork.com
Personal podcast: http://ashimmy.podomatic.com

But, will Windows XP customers want system 7?

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By Louis wheeler (not verified) on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:29am.

It is resolving this enigma which tells whether System 7 will be a success. Sure, System 7 sounds much better than Vista, but is that the point? Who wanted Vista? No one that I know.

MS hasn't been listening its customers. Did MS's customers really want an advanced compositing graphics system such as in Mac OSX's Aqua or Window's Areo? MS's move to an advanced graphics system was after many years of decrying the Mac OSX experience as "eye candy."

Many existing IT personnel don't need Areo. They just wanted an updated XP which would handle virus' better. The hardware overhead necessary to run Areo made the Mac more competitive. It was why MS confused people with six versions; MS needed to hide the fact that a Vista computer with the full Areo experience would cost as much or more than a Mac. If you want the cheapest computing experience possible, you don't want a Mac or Vista and system 7. You use Linux.

The computing market is mature; great shifts in market-share are impossible now. People are locked into the current paradigm. There won't be any big moves until the next hardware sea change, which is coming within five years.

Thus, I really don't see Microsoft and Apple directly competing against each other. Each has sewed up its niche for; The OS wars are over. Apple may be stealing Wintel customers from around the Periphery, but Apple won't be attacking MS's stronghold in the Enterprise markets. The computer market, before the recession, was flat -- a replacement market. The Megahertz Wars were a memory. Computers are dull, so computer OS's should be dull.

Apple is trying to breath some life into the market with Snow Leopard, but who knows how that will turn out? No one was doing much good in programming for multiple cores, but that might change. It is too soon to say which OS will be impressive.

Windows 7's real problem is not with Snow leopard; it is with XP. Will MS's existing customers care enough to want to change?

What he said...

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By Mitchell Ashley on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:43am.

Excellent point, Louis, about XP users. I had some very similar thoughts in a previous blog post about the topic of whether XP users would willingly migrate to Windows 7 http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/37956.

Mitchell Ashley

Converging Network, LLC
Personal blog: http://www.theconvergingnetwork.com
Personal podcast: http://ashimmy.podomatic.com

Again another prediction from you.

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By Geemooosh (not verified) on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 11:34am.

I see, you have not really learnt a lesson yet from always jumping the gun and drinking the Redmond KoolAid. Can you personally count how often you've been wrong, only to turn around and eat crow?. Anyway, I digress. What i mean to say is that both OSes currently are beta-ware and a lot could change by release time, not to mention, some companies, who overpromise every time and under deliver.And at what extra cost (hidden tax on new hardware, video cards etc.) will this Redmond "eyecandy" demand to play with pretty desktops, without really providing any extra productivity or security?. ... Please inform us when the verdict's in. Thx

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About Converging on Microsoft
Mitchell Ashley is principal consultant at Converging Network LLC where he provides product, technology and social media consulting to emerging technology companies. A successful CTO and product innovator, Mitchell has created many successful, award winning products in the networking, security, convergence, Internet and IT industries. In addition to blogging for NetworkWorld, Mitchell regularly blogs at TheConvergingNetwork and co-hosts the widely popular StillSecure After All These Years podcast.
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