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Is Marc Andreessen betting $300M against Cisco's successful acquisition model?

It's my opinion that he is.

By Brad Reese on Mon, 07/06/09 - 6:27am.

Cisco CEO John Chambers has never been shy when it comes to bragging about Cisco's ability to catch market transitions:

"We build our culture at Cisco around catching market transitions."

After reading an article today in The New York Times, it's my personal opinion that Marc Andreessen is betting $300 million that the next market transition will make Cisco's successful acquisitions model obsolete.

How so you may ask?

Well, Andreessen plans to watch what companies Cisco acquires:

"Our secret plan is to watch what gets acquired and fund the next company," betting that it will be able to be more innovative than the one that is inside a corporation. "A good template is to fund companies doing whichever the next-generation product would have been," he said. One example: The Flip video camera, made by Pure Digital Technologies. Though Cisco might do very well with the Flip, innovation will probably be incremental, like better software or a new chip, Mr. Andreessen said. He said he was interested to watch what newer digital video camera start-ups might do. "Is Cisco likely to innovate? No, not the way Flip would have," he said.

It's my personal opinion that Andreessen sees as the next market transition, independent companies operating in Silicon Valley able to out innovate Cisco simply because they have no desire to be acquired.

Heck, what entrepreneur worth his salt would want to be hogtied by Cisco's new committee culture? I can still see those wishing to cash out selling to Cisco, but the real winners will remain independent.

If you had a choice, would you back the technology vision of Marc Andreessen or that of Cisco Chief Technology Officer Padmasree Warrior?

Marc Andreessen

Padmasree Warrior

Related story;

Netscape Founder Seeks to Fund Next Gates, Jobs


Who are you betting on to win this new market transition, Andreessen or Warrior?

Brad Reese
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meh

0

Who's going to win, Internet Explorer, or Netscape? Yeah, Marc is way successful, better bet on his side.

Who cares? Post something relevant, you hack. Of course startups can out-innovate, but you look at the products they produce. The challenge is making Enterprises adopt the technology of a startup, which rarely happens. It takes a Sun, or an IBM, or your favorite whipping company to make a technology scalable to operate on a world-wide network for thousands of users. it takes lots of money, lots a brain trust, and Cisco's got it. Talk to any Cisco employee, they are passionate and capable in their area of expertise, Cisco's not missing anything, and is certainly not coming off the top of the mountain any time soon.

Glad we both agree I'm a hack

0

Glad we both agree I'm a hack.

Also agree with you that Cisco is packed to the gills with capable and passionate employees whom I think will be jumping from Cisco's ship on a more frequent basis.

However, I find it curious that you would choose the technology vision of Cisco CTO Padmasree Warrior over Marc Andreessen, oh well, it's a fact that Cisco is losing market share across the board under Warrior's vision.

It's also a fact that Microsoft's Internet Explorer is also losing market share.

Now that Cisco has AT&T locked up as a customer, I smell Cisco's blood being spilled by start-ups who out innovate Cisco.

Who cares if "Old World" companies don't buy innovative products from start-ups, the future belongs to "New World" companies thriving from innovation.

Sincerely,

Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished

Ohhh here we go.

0

Trust the Netscape guy? Yup, he innovated and got 0wned.

His whole idea is to watch what get's acquired and fund another company. Umm, ok, that makes a whole bunch of sense. Why not look to see who has the good tech now and invest in them, so when they get acquired the investment company can reap the rewards. Or that would take too much effort.

"independent companies operating in Silicon Valley able to out innovate Cisco simply because they have no desire to be acquired." <--- This has always been the case. But the lack the funding to innovate, the skill sets to grow and maintain the product. People don't buy point products for networking/security/unified comms. They buy solutions. Point product vendors or "niche players" quite often don't offer solutions, but rather a fancy product that has some special bells n' whistles.

Internet Explorer is loosing market share. Agreed. It is also a free browser included in the OS which has been known to be insecure. With the uptake in Mac OS, Linux, IE will continue to loose share. What does that have to do with former co-founder from Netscape betting against Cisco's acquisition ?

"oh well, it's a fact that Cisco is losing market share across the board under Warrior's vision."
Brad, you actually use yourself as a reference?
Also, it's not a "fact" because Dell'Oro group reported a survey. It's a survey! I work for Cisco and I know 2/4 products I work with have gained market share, 1 is flat, 1 is -8% likely due to the economy.

This sounds eerily silimiar to the artcile you posted about Shoretel winning a baseball park in the USA as a big deal. Yet Cisco getting named to AT&T's short list of preferred vendors (Juniper, Huawei were not) was barely mentioned.

Steve

Please explain

0

Hi Steve,

First, please explain why you believe a Dell'Oro report/survey is not a fact?

Secondly, if the Cisco product you work with had an -8% market share loss, why would you say the economy caused it?

Third, the Netscape guy has figured out that the future for Silicon Valley start-ups who want to be big winners, is NOT being acquired by Cisco!

It's my personal opinion that the Netscape guy is saying Cisco has become just another "Old World" company.

Sincerely,

Brad Reese

BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished

8% is less than some vendors losses

0

So what, an 8% slump in certain product areas compared to some companies dropping 10% of their entire sales numbers is nothing to be concerned about. Cisco has weathered the storm in 2000 and it'll do it again. I'm not worried about Cisco. I would also doubt the numbers posted by companies like Huawei (in your other article) and some of the latest JV's put out. These companies that sell based on discounting will not survive and innovate. Where is H3C, Juniper and Huawei when it comes to Voice, Video, Telepresence. They have no products whatsoever.

My money is on Cisco to stay alive during these tough times and come out shining.

Market share loss, not revenue loss

0

Hopefully, you're aware that we're specifically talking about market share loss and not revenue loss.

And if your money's on Cisco, well then, here's hoping you're going to be a very happy camper!

Sincerely,

Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished

I would put my money with Cisco

0

I am not impressed by Andreessen. He is a master at hype, sound bites and simple analysis, but I have not seen or heard anything really smart or good ideas from him since Mosaic. I imagine that his current portfolio is not delivering the big returns that he had hoped. Sure, Ning is huge, but how much advertising can he sell to make it really profitable. Twitter and the other new technology companies either have no clue how to make money yet or are not that interesting.

While I agree with the basic premise that startups will out innovate big companies, I do not agree that they will necessarily make the big returns. In fact, they need each other, most startups either go out of business or are bought by the big guys like Cisco. Few do, or should go public. What Andreessen, neglects to mention, is that his fund, or any venture fund for that matter, would not be as viable without companies like Cisco who provide the capital for the "liquidity event".

Andreessen and myself disagree

0

Hi David,

Andreessen and myself disagree.

The game-changer here is that Cisco will no longer be the "liquidity event." For the last nine months, Cisco stock has traded at less than the Weighted-Average Price per Share of its stock repurchase program (Page 26).

Cisco is now ruled by committee, what entrepreneur (other then the one who wants to "cash-out" to retire or move on) would sell to Cisco?

Sure Pure Digital did, however, it snookered Cisco into overpaying, $747 million when considering the weighted-average cost of the stock Cisco exchanged for it.

In my opinion, being bought by a big guy is cashing-out and then dying. The really big returns will come from a company remaining independent.

I agree with Andreessen that the game has changed!

Sincerely,

Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished

Bet on innovation

0

Cisco's model of owning the network products channel and filling it up with acquired products is obsolete. The company had for last 2 decades relied on direction from their channel to enter into adjacent markets. The channels are now oblivious as to what the next adjacent market is.

The company needs to use its $30B to fund new projects and create a culture of innovation.

No so according to Wendy Bahr

0

No so according to Wendy Bahr - Senior Vice President for Cisco U.S. and Canada Channels:

Cisco’s Winning Formula Isn’t Changing

Bahr said Cisco and its channel partners are in total sync together regarding the 30 new adjacencies that Cisco is now leading its channel partners into.

Also, I find it very interesting that a Cisco channel partner with $1 billion in Cisco sales is absolutely "gugu-gaga" over Cisco's move into 30 new adjacencies:

Bob Olwig - Vice President of Corporate Business Development for World Wide Technology

Sincerely,

Brad Reese
BradReese.Com Cisco Refurbished

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