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Curt Monash

Google declares total war on Microsoft, but the main battles are years away

Google Chrome OS is a formidable attack on Microsoft, especially in conjunction with Google Wave, Google Mail, and the rest of Google Apps. But first Google Chrome OS has to actually be made to work ...

By CurtMonash on Wed, 07/08/09 - 4:21am.
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Google blogged Tuesday night about a new project, the Google Chrome Operating System. Highlights include:

  • Open source
  • Targeted to appear in netbooks in the second half of 2010
  • Google Chrome browser + new windowing system + Linux kernel
  • Minimal user interface
  • Data stored or at least backed up in the cloud, and hence available on any computer
  • Hardware compatibility hassles allegedly eliminated
  • Ditto for software update hassles
  • Ditto for security problems
  • Apps apparently assumed to run inside the browser. (Not clear if this is required or just recommended.)

As I blogged elsewhere:

Obviously, Google Chrome OS is a direct attack on Microsoft — even more so than Google Wave, which I’ve predicted will “play merry hell with Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Exchange, Microsoft SharePoint, and more,” or for that matter than Google Mail and the rest of Google Apps. Taken together, Google’s initiatives suggest that an all-out Google-Microsoft war is coming, in a conflict that many people have been expecting — and analyzing — for years.

... while Google may kill Microsoft’s client business some day, it clearly won’t happen for quite a while, Techcrunch’s excitement notwithstanding. We’re talking a multi-year effort before there’s any realistic chance of Microsoft being toppled. On the other hand, it’s hard to think of major software compatibility issues that won’t quickly be addressed, except Microsoft’s own product and, probably, MMO games — assuming, of course, Chrome OS gets enough initial traction for anybody to care. So intermediate- and long-term, Microsoft’s PC business is very vulnerable indeed.

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About A World of Bytes

Curt Monash is a leading analyst of and strategic advisor to the software industry. Praised by Lawrence J. Ellison for his "unmatched insight into technology and marketplace trends," Curt was the software/services industry's #1 ranked stock analyst while at PaineWebber, Inc., where he served as a First Vice President until 1987. He subsequently co-founded Evernet, Inc., a $40 million networking systems integrator. Since 1990, he has owned and operated Monash Research, an analysis and advisory firm covering software-intensive sectors of the technology industry. In that period he also has been co-founder, president, or chairman of several other technology startups.

Curt has served as a strategic advisor to many well-known firms, including Oracle, Microsoft, SAP, AOL, CA, and Netezza. Curt earned a Ph.D. in mathematics (Game Theory) from Harvard University. He has held faculty positions in mathematics, economics and public policy at Harvard, Yale, and Suffolk universities.