Google/YouTube rumor indeed 40% true

When TechCrunch blogger Michael Arrington ignited last Friday's media/blogosphere frenzy over a rumored $1.6 billion acquisition of YouTube by Google, he prudently cautioned his readers with a headline that included the words "completely unsubstantiated." (The "completely" there playing the same superfluous role as "totally" in "Totally Nude" on a strip club.)
 
And, Arrington went even a step further by including this line in his report: "Based on experience with these sort of rumors, I’d put this at 40% likely to be at least partially true."
 
Turns out this was a positively brilliant stroke of journalistic hedging by Arrington, as Buzzblog has learned over the weekend exactly which 40% of this rumored deal is at least partially true: Yes, indeed, the companies involved are Google and YouTube.
 
However, contrary to what you've been reading everywhere but in this "Buzzblog Exclusive Report," it is YouTube that will be buying Google, not as they say like to say on Wall Street, the other way around.
 
So, the 40% of the rumor that turned out to be at least partially true is the names of the principals involved.
 
Which, as any statistician will tell you, means that 40% of Arrington's report turned out to be at least partially untrue, namely the pecking order of the deal.
 
And this, I need not remind you math wizards, leaves 20% of the partial truth unaccounted for to this point.
 
That 20% would be the sale price, Buzzblog has learned. What do you say we add a couple of zeroes to that $1.6 billion and make it $160 billion, which would represent a tidy premium over and above Google's current market cap of $131.8 billion. (Hey, all those people who forked over $400-plus per share for the stock deserve some reward for abject recklessness of that order.)
 
So there you have it: YouTube's going to buy Google for $160 billion … although I would be remiss if I didn't point out that this is completely unsubstantiated and 40% likely to be at least partially true.