Gambling in Vegas

Used to be a time when you could count on some pretty big stakes down in Vegas. You know the type. Double down. Split that pair. Roll the dice. Try and draw that inside straight.

Or if you were a technophile, announce that new product. Take a risk on the direction of the market. Gamble with the future of your firm.

But not any longer.

Now everybody is buying insurance against dealer blackjack. They are playing it safe. No more big risky announcements. No more betting the farm that the world just might not be round after all.

These days, Networld + Interop is more about vendors simply proving that they can look like big-time players than making the surprise demonstration. In fact, most of the announcements are leaked to the press and analyst community weeks in advance - that is if they have not been released in the pre-show hype that has building since early April. And those that have been announced have been fairly predictable (with the occasional exception).

It seems that we have found ourselves in a marketplace that is, well, relatively predictable. Networking is no longer the new kid on the block, and maybe it just doesn't have the excitement of its youth.

Still, that doesn't mean you can just snooze through NetWorld + Interop. There are some really good parties. Here at Current Analysis, we'll be going over announcements throughout the week to select the five with the most impact. Read about them here next week.

But what should you look for this week?

First, there are going to be plenty of screaming gigabit switch/router products on the show floor. Avoid anything that claims "Layer 4 Switching" and look at everything that claims Layer 4 - or above - application filtering. But be sure to check for application program interfaces, as many don't yet exist and their ability to provide QoS is extremely limited (while their ability to provide multiple queue prioritization is fairly solid - but is not at the level of QoS). Also, look for underlying switching fabric. We've already seen several vendors that are quietly building Gigabit Ethernet switches on top of ATM hardware.

Second, "voice over anything" will be really hot. While the concept of moving both voice and data over a single pipe is hardly new (think voice over frame relay), we are finally seeing standardization. Couple this with user interest and you've got a technology on the move. But don't waste your time looking at CTI products just yet; while there are some nice PBX servers on the market, integration of telephones and PCs still isn't ready for prime time.

Third, there are some amazing remote access concentrators (RAC) on the market. Big ones. Carrier class. Not those old remote access servers of the early '90s. These are devices that are designed to concentrate thousands of lines for high-scale deployment at the edge of the NSP domain.

But wait, there's more. If you happen to be one of the remaining token-ring shops out there, check out some of the token-ring switching products now out on the market. That's right: Token-ring switches. If you've got installed token-ring LANs, you should take a look at the technology that is out there on the market. Fast, cheap, and from big name players that have that look of long-term stability that most conservative token-ring shops crave. No, these switches will not allow token ring to overtake (or even gain ground) on Ethernet. But they can offer a life-cycle extension for aging token-ring LANs everywhere.

Or, if you are looking for a few rebirth companies to check out, go see ACC or LANNET. ACC has recently found renewed life in the RAC space while LANNET (one of the original Ethernet switch companies back in the early '90s) is about to be officially spun out from its one-time acquirer Madge.

If, however, you are looking for something completely different, and a lot riskier, check out the Blackjack table, third from the left, across from the gift shop at the Luxor. That's where I had the most fun on my last visit to NetWorld + Interop.