Home network predictions

Before, home networks kept a low profile, enabling us to share broadband, a printer, maybe transfer a file. But now that digital features are being added to just about every consumer electronics device, the network is fast becoming an integral part of our lives. 

In its new report, "Worldwide Home Networking 2004-2008 Forecast and Analysis," IDC expects home network households to grow 25% to 111 million by 2008. Other key findings include:

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Before, home networks kept a low profile, enabling us to share broadband, a printer, maybe transfer a file. But now that digital features are being added to just about every consumer electronics device, the network is fast becoming an integral part of our lives. 

In its new report, "Worldwide Home Networking 2004-2008 Forecast and Analysis," IDC expects home network households to grow 25% to 111 million by 2008. Other key findings include:

• Wireless LANs emerge as the carrier for streaming video. Upcoming improvements in QoS and throughput make wireless a good choice, even though wired technologies will continue to be more reliable and easier to implement. The report didn’t break out wireless by 802.11a and 802.11g, but it’s likely dual-band a/g networks will dominate.
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• Home networks increase overseas. Today, the U.S. has 37% of home network households worldwide. IDC predicts that number will drop to 33% as the technology matures in other regions, namely Asia/Pacific.
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• Broadband service providers offer modems with integrated routers. Integrating the router will help service providers keep subscribers, reduce customer service costs and increase revenue by offering new services.
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• Power-line networks take off in Europe. Structural issues in Europe can impair wireless systems, making power line more attractive there than in the U.S. Faster versions of the HomePlug specification will support media streaming. U.S. adoption will remain limited in most regions, although as in Europe, power line will make progress where wireless isn’t feasible.
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• Multimedia over Coax (MoCA) emerges in the U.S. in 2005. Also called cable home networking, this technology offers secure and fast connections for entertainment networks. It will do well in the U.S. because of its high number of cable connections compared to other parts of the world.

Looking to the future, IDC envisions three specific types of networks emerging:

1. The PC network, which describes today’s network, enabling PCs to share files, printers and a broadband connection.

2. The multimedia network, which includes a PC for storing multimedia files (music, photos and video) and transmits them to TVs, stereos and other networked devices. These networks will also include dedicated storage or server devices.

3. The entertainment network, which will use a set top box (no PC) and connect to a personal video recorder (PVR such as Replay TV or TiVo) to stream video. These systems will likely use standards-based and Internet protocols, and be part of a system delivered by a cable or satellite service provider.

Here are some forecast numbers:

• U.S. households with a network, 2004: 13.5 million.
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• U.S. households with a network, 2008: 36.6 million.
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• U.S. wireless access points, gateways or routers, 2004: 10.1 million.
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• U.S. wireless access points, gateways or routers, 2008: 35.1 million.

Read more about home networks in Network World's Home Networks section.