The latest home network equipment predictions

Two reasons why my home network has been quiet lately: 1) I took a vacation and was out of the house for a few weeks; and 2) everything's working. So instead of a new adventure this week, here are a couple of news bits related to the home network market:

A BILLION DEVICES: A report from The Diffusion Group predicts that 1 billion devices will be connected to home networks by 2010. Last year's average of three networked devices per household will rise to about six devices per household in 2010, the report says. In addition, home network adoption is expected to grow from 35 million networks last year to more than 162 million networks in five years.

Most of us with current home networks probably already go beyond the three-to-six device average suggested by the report, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that the "average" home network currently consists of a few desktops and laptops.

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Two reasons why my home network has been quiet lately: 1) I took a vacation and was out of the house for a few weeks; and 2) everything's working. So instead of a new adventure this week, here are a couple of news bits related to the home network market:

A BILLION DEVICES: A report from The Diffusion Group predicts that 1 billion devices will be connected to home networks by 2010. Last year's average of three networked devices per household will rise to about six devices per household in 2010, the report says. In addition, home network adoption is expected to grow from 35 million networks last year to more than 162 million networks in five years.

Most of us with current home networks probably already go beyond the three-to-six device average suggested by the report, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that the "average" home network currently consists of a few desktops and laptops.

The research firm says the growth will occur in large part as broadband service providers push combined modem/networking systems (especially residential gateways) into the homes of new broadband subscribers.

"Home network adoption has been held back due to a combination of poor consumer familiarity with the technology and a lack of technology push on the part of vendors, governments and service providers," says Michael Greeson, president of the Diffusion Group.

More information on the report is available at http://www.tdgresearch.com.

CONSUMER/SOHO WLAN VENDORS STRUGGLE: The makers of home network wireless gear better hope that service providers begin that push soon. A report from In-Stat says with prices eroding in the WLAN gear market, few vendors are making any money, even as the number of shipments has increased strongly since 2000. In-Stat predicts that the SOHO/consumer access point market will rise from 17.6 million units in 2004 to about 32.6 million units in 2009, especially as users move from the 802.11g standard to (Multiple Input, Multiple Output (MIMO) products.

 The research firm says it believes users will be willing to pay more for the extra range that MIMO-based (802.11n when ratified) products promise. The report also says 802.11a/g equipment will not gain traction in the consumer/SOHO space, compared with the enterprise WLAN space.

On that point I disagree slightly, as current multimedia and consumer electronics equipment seems to be preferring an 802.11a link (both the uncluttered frequency and the higher bandwidth) in order to stream video. It's possible that CE vendors may now wait until 802.11n is ratified, but at the moment 802.11a is the only game in town for anyone interested in streaming quality multimedia around the house.

More details on the $3,000 In-Stat report is available at its Web site (http://www.in-stat.com).

Read more about home networks in Network World's Home Networks section.