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Divining the future of work

By Toni Kistner , Network World , 06/21/2004
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As the world economy begins recovering from nearly five years of stagnation, businesses developed from an industrial mindset face obsolescence. The future will see dramatic change in how, where and with whom we work. Net.Worker Managing Editor Toni Kistner spent time recently with Charlie Grantham and Jim Ware, leaders in what's loosely called the "future of work movement." The team runs a consulting firm that helps companies including Capital One, PeopleSoft, Intel and Cisco develop programs that ease their transition to the future. They also founded the Future of Work, a global network committed to building work environments that are cost-effective, socially and environmentally responsible and personally satisfying.

What are the key forces changing the way we work?

Ware: Demographics, economics and technology. The workforce in industrialized countries is growing older and more diverse, with many more women and minorities. We're seeing earlier entry of single moms and lower-skilled workers, and far more people working into their mid-70s - both because their health allows it and they can't live on a small retirement annuity based on a life expectancy of 65.

The economics of work are changing, too. You used to beat the competition by making more and more stuff, cheaper and cheaper. But today and increasingly in the future, people are willing to pay a premium for customizable products that meet individual needs. The hottest job growth will occur in the creative class - teachers, healthcare professionals, designers (from software to clothing), financial analysts.

Yet, despite current thinking, we're suffering from a talent shortage that'll only worsen in the next five years. There are whole lot more knowledge-based jobs than qualified people to fill them. A recent Harvard Management Update [published in October 2003] cites a Bureau of Labor Statistics report that predicts that by 2010 there could be as many as 10 million more jobs available in the U.S. than employees to fill them. Why aren't human resources managers tearing out their hair?

And, of course, technology has finally made remote and mobile work as efficient as being in the office next door. While there's no substitute for face-to-face interaction when teams start a project, midway through, and at the end, the rest of the time, there's just no need to drive to the office.

What else is changing?

Grantham: The rules of engagement. Creative talent now controls how the game is played - we see it in the entertainment industry, financial services, medicine, education, and certainly in professional sports. The stars name the terms and let their agents negotiate the employment contract. This system for matching talent and work will soon migrate into engineering and even liberal arts professions. If you need a degree to do a job, there will be more work than you can shake a stick at, and you - the professional - will define the terms.

There's also a renaissance brewing in how humans organize to produce things, ideas and services. We've lost our trust in large organizations, we're learning how to form our identity and find psychological support from our own circle of friends and colleagues. We don't need to be part of an organization to feel secure.

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