Complete survey results Additional resources: Dealing with budget cuts Tips for pulling off a network project when its funding gets slashed. Network World, 11/24/97. The squeeze is on Our annual budget survey shows network managers are putting functionality over glitz. Network World, 6/16/97. Network needs assessment pays off Mapping an IT project to required resources greatly increases the likelihood of a successful rollout. Network World, 7/7/97. Emmett is a freelance writer in Wallingford, Pa. She can be contacted at ArielleEm @aol.com.

The age of being reasonable
Survey finds bottom-line concerns win out over hot technologies such as ATM and Gigabit Ethernet.

By Arielle Emmett
Network World, 12/15/97

Network managers have become risk-averse and careful with their cash. Managers aren't willing to invest in bleeding-edge technology or even bandwidth as a glut commodity, especially when the business case can't justify the costs.

That's the gist of the 1997 Network World/Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group Technology Planning Survey, a series of 300 in-depth interviews with strategic network planners in the nation's commercial, government and educational institutions. The annual survey cuts through the hype to take the pulse of Network World readers from organizations such as manufacturers, community colleges, banks, utilities, systems integrators and computer vendors.

The results? ATM growth is circumscribed and modest in LANs and WANs. Current implementations are quite sparse: Only 16% of respondents are using ATM in the local area and only 15% are using it in the wide area.

Network newcomer Gigabit Ethernet has gained even less ground. A mere 10% of respondents have deployed Gigabit Ethernet switches and more than half have no plans to use them in the future.

Present in 75% of the surveyed companies, Windows NT Server is beginning to raid NetWare's installed base. Although 51% of managers who run NT said they added it to support new applications, NT has displaced NetWare at 27% of those companies.

Not everyone is sold on Internet-based commerce. Nearly half of the respondents said it's not relevant to their businesses, while security and access issues remain jagged edges for companies that seek the green light.

However, Internet-based services are shaping up to be a viable choice for the corporate data backbone. Almost half of respondents are currently using Internet-based services as part of their backbones, and most of the remainder intend to be within three years.

Thin clients, on the other hand, appear to be dead on arrival. Although folks are almost evenly divided on the merits of network computers (NC) and network PCs, only 26% plan to deploy them. End users are the ones sounding the death knell: 75% of respondents believe they will refuse to give up their Pcs.

Regardless of the technology, the bottom line is respondents see a close tie between prudence and revenue, applications development and planning for next-generation infrastructure. Managers are scoring higher in their organizations by getting more performance out of existing networks than by forklifting to the future.

When administrators make a business case for technology deployment, they address unmet user needs and revenue opportunities instead of perceived bottlenecks.

High-speed backbones, new switches and software, remote access, thin clients and even intranets aren't worth the investment unless real-world applications exist to support them.

"In all, the data corroborates what we're seeing, namely that applications are driving the answers [to infrastructure change],'' says Gerry Cunningham, principal at Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group's networking practice in New York.

Slow ATM growth in LANs & WANs

"ATM is still not generally there on a wide-scale basis,'' Cunningham says. ATM was previously procured as a way to buy frame relay services under a negotiated deal rather than at more expensive tariffed rates. Demand for ATM may lessen now that frame relay has become a nontariffed service, he notes.

Michigan National Bank is one organization that chose frame relay over ATM. The $10 billion institution simply doesn't need the bandwidth of ATM in the LAN or WAN, says Bill Harkema, telecommunications engineering manager at bank headquarters in Lansing, Mich.

Cost and ease of use were other factors that contributed to the decision.

So where can you find ATM? It's most often implemented in the backbone of larger, Fortune 500-type businesses, says Dean Thompson, manager of network services for Cleveland-based Berish and Associates. MTD Products, Blockbuster Entertainment, Inc. and LTV Steel are just a few of the systems integrator's clients that are on the path to ATM.

"ATM is typically replacing either Fast Ethernet or, in some cases, regular Ethernet, and token ring is going to the wayward side,'' Thompson says. "I'm seeing IS power users and professionals getting 100 megabit Ethernet switched to their servers and desktops, mostly for CAD and database applications.''

ATM's got backbone in Virginia. The State of Virginia Information Technology Division manages 5,000 to 6,000 users in a private network that branches out to state agencies in 350 re-mote sites. The majority of the sites use frame relay to connect to each other, though the IT division gradually is implementing ATM backbones at more than 65 sites, says Rodney Taylor, a senior computer engineer. The state is migrating to ATM campus backbones to combine voice and data and to increase bandwidth.

"We're starting with 10 sites and then moving up to 68,'' he says. Taylor currently is testing ATM edge switches from ADC Kentrox, FORE Systems, Inc. and Cisco Systems, Inc., and expects to complete the upgrade within three to six months.

Taylor is in a distinct minority. Only 16% of respondents currently are using ATM in the LAN. A surprising 69% of non-ATM sites don't plan to deploy it in the campus, while those who do could be swayed by Gigabit Ethernet or another competing technology.

Nearly 50% would rethink future ATM deployment plans if something less expensive comes along, while 41% might abandon ATM plans if Gigabit Ethernet emerges as a viable alternative.

Gigabit Gap

ATM will deliver higher bandwidth between campus buildings and support video and data, which Harrison says are key to long-distance educational offerings.

Because the school already is linked to the Virginia Broadband Network via DS-3 ATM WAN links, ATM was a natural, scalable choice for the campus.

"We'd like to migrate directly to ATM and bypass Gigabit Ethernet switches,'' says Harrison, who believes it makes sense to develop a parallel network and avoid a forklift upgrade.

Harrison isn't the only respondent who's currently unmoved by Gigabit Ethernet and its high price tag. A mere 10% of respondents currently use Gigabit Ethernet switches, and more than half report no plans to use them in the future. What's more, ATM's maturity and the trust it commands from users give it a leg up.

"Nobody's paying for Gigabit Ethernet,'' says Steve Jennings, a systems engineer with Dallas-based network hardware vendor Sentient Networks, Inc. He thinks people are waiting for ATM to take off at the desktop. When it does, the resulting ATM price cuts could obviate Gigabit Ethernet, he says.

However, those who are interested in Gigabit Ethernet said its simplicity and high capacity are appealing. Virginia's IT division will deploy Gigabit Ethernet in its backbone because "it's a natural migration path,'' Taylor says. The outlook for Gigabit Ethernet also will get brighter when the standard is finalized and prices come down.

NT Server cleans up

Survey respondents were much more re-sounding in their opinions about NT Server - 75% already are using the network operating system (NOS), primarily as an add-on to support new applications. Novell, Inc.'s loss is Microsoft Corp.'s gain - 27% of the NT users said NT is displacing NetWare at their organizations. NT's momentum is building in the academic environment, says Al Andrews, dean of business and technology at the 7,000-student Kansas City Community College. The NOS is proliferating all over campus thanks to high commercial demand for NT Server training, Andrews says. "Windows NT Servers are replacing NetWare, and businesses want classes in it.''

The college also has substantial financial motivation to use NT. "When I go with Novell, I'm paying industrial prices,'' Andrews says, whereas Microsoft offers the school educational discounts.

"Everybody is getting the Windows NT environment, and NetWare is losing share every day,'' says Berish & Associates' Thompson. "Novell ignored its client base, hasn't made major improvements and tried to get into other areas that Microsoft was good at,'' he asserts. Novell's own tools make it easy to migrate to NT, he adds.

However, others aren't yet ready to write the eulogy for NetWare. "NT will continue to grow, but won't replace NetWare services anytime soon,'' asserts Bruce Curtis, network consultant at North Dakota State University in Fargo.

Respondents' concerns about NT Server range from its lack of a comprehensive directory to the product's Microsoft-centric approach.

The jury is still out on Active Directory Services (ADS), the next-generation directory that will ship with Windows NT Server 5.0 when it's released next year. More than a quarter of NT users plan to make do with the existing NT domain structure; 24% definitely intend to implement ADS. But most are undecided, and say it depends on many factors.

Internet implementations

Of those exploring Internet-based commerce, the majority said potential product sales applications are compelling, followed by electronic data interchange.

Managers are more bullish about using the Internet for other purposes. Nearly half already use Net-based services - e-mail, file transfer and tie-ins to remote locations - as part of their corporate data backbone. And roughly 50% of those who don't use the Internet expect to use it as part of their corporate backbone within the next three years. "The potential is mind-boggling,'' says Ron Miskie, chairman of Knowledge Transfer International, a New York-based IT training firm. "A lot of people want to put more data on the Internet, and there's a growing appetite for multimedia applications, but there's a long way to go with security.''

Indeed, hacking is a big concern for prospective Internet-based commerce deployers - 51% said security problems could thwart their plans.

Some network consultants say that very few effective Internet or intranet commerce products exist. "I'd have to say that the e-commerce aspect is hype,'' says Sentient Networks' Jennings. "I'm not seeing a big expansion.''

However, timing may have everything to do with future Internet commerce expansion. The real boom could happen over the next 12 to 24 months, notes Deloitte's Cunningham.

His clients are increasingly considering migrating sales and support to the Internet through systems such as Internet-based call centers. Any application that gives people better, cheaper and faster ways to interact is bound to be successful, he says.

Some consultants argue that corporate intranets and remote access devices will become intrinsic to the process. Almost 68% of survey respondents already have a corporate intranet, and another 35% plan to have one within a year.

Remote access requirements within companies also are growing rapidly, according to the majority of managers surveyed. Web utilization and group collaboration tools are driving the need for more bandwidth. Already in use at 26% of the surveyed companies, virtual private networks will expedite secure remote access and also may be just the boost Internet-based commerce needs.

NCs for naught?

"We have no plans to use thin clients, just full-blown PCs,'' says Taylor of the state of Virginia. "We're using a lot of applications that require the end user to have his own microprocessor.''

Thin clients approach a risky technology model that many academic IT organizations can do without, says Virginia Western Community College's Harrison.

"We don't want to be on the bleeding edge, and we don't want to hold the sword that does the bleeding,'' he says. "We want proven technologies.''

However, NT fan Thompson, of Bearish and Associates, is enthusiastic about NT's forthcoming support for Citrix's Winframe because it lets users of disparate platforms connect to Windows applications on servers. He says thin clients could come on strong for certain vertical applications such as data entry or billing inquiries.

The bottom line to technology planning is everything is driven by applications, concludes Deloitte's Cunningham. "Managers need to understand the application development cycle to understand what's happening on their networks. You can't make a decision in one without the other.''