Welcome to the Power-o-meter, in which Network World's ever-watchful readers gauge the most powerful companies and executives. For this issue, we asked 250 network managers to rank the best and brightest in the network industry.
The 1997 Power Chart
To set the stage, we asked readers to rank 265 of the leading network companies and their CEOs on a scale of one to 100, with 100 being the most powerful. No surprise here. Microsoft, Intel and Cisco - the so-called Wintelco triangle - hold the top slots in company rankings, with Netscape, Sun and 3Com close behind. Give Oracle's Larry Ellison and IBM's Lou Gerstner credit for boosting their companies' rankings this year.
Compaq, which has always dominated the server market, has been expanding its array of network equipment offerings, but the Houston company actually dropped in the rankings this year. Novell, a prime target of Microsoft, also dipped, as did Bay Networks, though the company's ranking would likely have dipped even further without the addition of high-profile CEO David House. MCI may be a highly desirable partner for suitors like BT, GTE and Worldcom, but customers' perception of its power in the industry is declining. Interestingly, Worldcom, which upset BT's apple cart with its unsolicited bid to buy MCI, budged nary a notch from its 20th-place standing last year.
Company Score Last year's rank 1. Microsoft 82.5 1. same 2. Intel 77.9 NA 3. Cisco 74.8 2 down 4. Netscape 72.6 3. down 5. Sun 69.9 5. same 6. 3Com 69.1 4. down 7. HP 67.0 6. down 8. Oracle 66.1 12. up 9. AT&T 65.3 9. same 10. Novell 65.0 7. down 11. IBM/Lotus 64.9 13. up 12. Lucent 64.0 NA 13. Compaq 63.7 8. down 14. Bay Networks 62.0 11. down 15. MCI 60.8 10. down 16. Sprint 57.9 15. down 17. Digital 57.5 19. up 18. Computer Associates 57.0 NA 19. Bell Atlantic/NYNEX 56.8 NA 20. WorldCom 56.2 20. same 21. GTE 54.9 NA 22. Cabletron 53.8 14. down 23. Ascend 52.6 NA 24. Nortel 50.8 17. down 25. SBC 48.3 NA 26. Newbridge Networks 36.5 NA NA: Not on last year's list
CEOs
When it comes to the CEOs, it's - surprise - Bill Gates who continues to top the list, followed by pal Andy Grove, who's not content to control just the chip industry but is pushing ever-harder into the networking arena. Like IBM, CEO Lou Gerstner is seen as wielding more muscle these days, as is Eric Benhamou, fresh from the megamerger he engineered between 3Com and U.S. Robotics. While Novell is struggling as a company, readers see new CEO Eric Schmidt as having some real influence in the industry. He'll need it, as the charts ahead will show. Compaq's Eckhard Pfeiffer lost some ground, as did HP's Lew Platt and MCI's Bert Roberts, who readers may think is being buffeted by the takeover winds blowing through MCI these days. For that, Roberts can thank at least in part WorldCom CEO Bernie Ebbers, who boosted his own power ranking through his highly visible takeover tactics. Bill Esrey, Sprint CEO, has also seen his influence flag.
CEO Score Last year's rank 1. Bill Gates, Microsoft 84.1 1 same 2. Andy Grove, Intel 68.9 NA 3. Jim Barksdale, Netscape 66.1 2. down 4. Scott McNealy, Sun 65.1 4. Same 5. John Chambers, Cisco 64.3 3. down 6. Larry Ellison, Oracle 61.4 6. same 7. Lou Gerstner, IBM 59.3 9. Up 8. Eric Schmidt, Novell 59.0 NA 9. Eric Benhamou, 3Com 58.3 12. Up 10. Eckhard Pfeiffer, Compaq 57.3 7. down 11. Robert Allen, AT&T* 56.7 11. Same 12. Lew Platt, HP 56.6 5. down 13. Bert Roberts, MCI 54.6 8. down 14. Charles Wang, Computer Assoc 54.0 NA 15. Henry Schacht, Lucent** 53.3 NA 16. Bernard Ebbers, WorldCom 51.4 20. Up 17. Ray Smith, Bell Atlantic 50.4 NA 18. David House, Bay Networks 50.1 NA 19. Robert Palmer, Digital 49.8 18. Down 20. Charles Lee, GTE 49.4 NA 21. Bill Esrey, Sprint 46.1 15. down 22. Ed Whitacre, SBC 45.0 NA 23. Don Reed, Cabletron 43.4 NA 24. Jean Monty, Nortel*** 39.7 17. down 25. Mory Ejabat, Ascend 36.8 NA 26. Terry Matthews, Newbridge 30.8 NA* C. Michael Armstrong had not been named CEO when this survey was conducted.
** Richard McGinn has succeeded Schacht, who remains Lucent's chairman, as CEO.
*** Monty has since been replaced by John Roth as Nortel CEO.
Power surge
Next we asked readers whether the companies and executives in question gained or lost power in 1997. The chart shows the percentage of readers who said the company gained power vs. those who said the company lost power. (And no, we didn't slip up. If you add in the readers who said the company's power stayed the same, the total would be 100%.) The Power Index shows the difference in the two figures. The larger the Power Index, the more power readers' said the company gained. The Internet, Java and Justice Department be damned. When it comes to building on its own power, Microsoft can't be matched. It's also no surprise that readers see Cisco and Intel getting stronger. But who's that hot on the heels of the /Wintelco/Wintel? bunch? Lucent. Yes, Lucent, AT&T's unshackled equipment arm. On the WAN services side, WorldCom is outdoing rivals such as AT&T, Sprint and MCI, as is RBOC Bell Atlantic, which swallowed up neighbor NYNEX.
Companies Power Increased in 97 Decreased Power Index Microsoft 83.7 1.6 +82.1 Intel 67.7 4.4 +63.3 Cisco 55.8 4.8 +51 Lucent 49.4 2.0 +47.4 3Com 52.6 5.6 +47 Sun 51.8 7.6 +44.2 Compaq 52.6 8.8 +43.8 Oracle 43.4 4.0 +39.4 Netscape 57.4 18.7 +38.7 Hewlett-Packard 43.8 6.4 +37.4 WorldCom 34.7 0.8 +33.9 Bell Atlantic 35.9 4.0 +31.9 MCI 37.8 12.0 +25.8 Bay Networks 33.5 8.8 +24.7 GTE 28.7 5.6 +23.1 IBM/Lotus 36.3 16.3 +20 Sprint 28.7 8.8 +19.9 AT&T 38.3 20.7 +17.6 Ascend 19.5 4.0 +15.5 SBC 17.5 2.8 +14.7 Computer Associates 21.5 8.0 +13.5 Cabletron 21.5 8.8 +12.7 Nortel 15.9 4.0 +11.9 Digital 25.5 22.3 + 3.2 Newbridge Networks 5.2 2.4 + 2.8 Novell 23.1 47.0 -23.9OK, maybe he is going to take over the world. Readers said King Gates gained the most power in 1997 - by far. The bespectacled Wonder Boy far outpaced even formidable contenders such as Intel's Grove and nemesis Scott McNealy. McNealy has nothing to gripe about, however, with Java helping him boost his power standing in '97. Turns out Lucent was no flash in the pan in the corporate power rankings, as Chairman Henry Schacht, CEO at the time of this survey, scored nicely here.
Normally behind-the-scenes Charles Lee, CEO of GTE, picked up a nice power gain in a year in which his company, with its local, long-distance and Internet assets, become a more valuable commodity in the telecom market.
Although Netscape CEO Jim Barksdale is still seen as a powerful figure, based on the overall rankings, he didn't keep up with Gates or McNealy in power gains for the year.
That, as well as some of the findings ahead, may indicate some tougher times in the months to come for Netscape. (Hey, do you want to compete against Microsoft?)
AT&T's Robert Allen handed over the CEO reins none too soon, considering his dismal power gains for '97.
Digital's Robert Palmer fared poorly, but only Eric Schmidt actually pulled a negative Power Index number. Do readers think the turnaround job at Novell is just too big?
CEO Power Increase in 97 Decrease Index Bill Gates, Microsoft 64.6 1.6 +63 Andy Grove, Intel 38.6 2.8 +35.8 Scott McNealy, Sun 35.5 3.2 +32.3 John Chambers, Cisco 26.3 2.0 +24.3 Henry Schacht, Lucent* 23.5 0.8 +22.7 Eckhard Pfeiffer, Compaq 25.1 2.8 +22.3 Bernard Ebbers, WorldCom 23.1 0.8 +22.3 Larry Ellison, Oracle 26.3 4.8 +21.5 Jim Barksdale, Netscape 29.9 10.4 +19.5 Lew Platt, HP 20.7 2.4 +18.3 Ray Smith, Bell Atlantic 17.5 0.4 +17.1 Eric Benhamou, 3Com 18.3 1.6 +16.7 Charles Lee, GTE 16.3 1.6 +14.7 Lou Gerstner, IBM 22.3 8.4 +13.9 Bill Esrey, Sprint 12.4 3.2 + 9.2 Charles Wang, Computer Associates 13.9 4.8 + 9.1 David House, Bay Networks 12.4 4.0 + 8.4 Ed Whitacre, SBC 9.6 1.6 + 8.0 Bert Roberts, MCI 14.3 6.8 + 7.5 Don Reed, Cabletron 10.0 2.8 + 7.2 Jean Monty, Nortel* 6.8 0.0 + 6.8 Robert Allen, AT&T* 17.9 14.3 + 3.6 Mory Ejabat, Ascend 6.0 2.4 + 3.6 Robert Palmer, Digital 12.0 9.6 + 2.4 Terry Matthews, Newbridge 3.2 1.6 + 1.6 Eric Schmidt, Novell 15.5 22.3 - 6.8* CEO at time of survey
Power Predictor: The year ahead
In our quest to provide perfect power symmetry, we also asked readers to predict whether the companies and their captains will pick up more power in 1998 or leave it lying by the roadside.
So we don't have to start off with Microsoft, let's begin at the bottom this time. For Novell, it's, well, ouch. Nearly 46% of the readers surveyed said Novell will lose power in 1998, giving the company a negative - yes, negative - Power Index number of 17.1.
Nearly 25% of readers said Netscape will lose power this year, but that number is offset by the nearly 50% who said the company will gain power, buying the browser giant a respectacle Power Index ranking of 25.1.
That's about the same score grabbed by Bay Networks. The good news for the revitalized Bay? It outscored longtime rival Cabletron, which has also been through some changes in the executive offices.
But the bad news for both is that readers think bigger brethren Cisco and 3Com will gain much more power in '98.
Same message for Ascend which, despite its merger with Cascade didn't pull score nearly as well as Cisco and 3Com.
Once again, upstart WorldCom outpaced its better-heeled rivals AT&T, MCI and Sprint. Once again, fledgling Lucent showed up very well, trailing only big guns Microsoft and Intel in the Power Index and significantly outpacing traditional rival Nortel.
Company Power will increase in 98 Decrease Index Microsoft 79.2 6.4 +72.8 Intel 64.5 5.2 +59.3 Lucent 50.6 1.2 +49.4 Cisco 53.8 4.8 +49.0 3Com 47.0 4.4 +42.6 Sun 50.2 8.4 +41.8 Hewlett-Packard 45.8 6.4 +39.4 Oracle 41.0 6.4 +34.6 Compaq 45.0 10.8 +34.2 WorldCom 33.1 1.6 +31.5 Bell Atlantic 34.3 4.8 +29.5 GTE 34.3 5.6 +28.7 Bay Networks 33.9 8.4 +25.5 Netscape 49.8 24.7 +25.1 AT&T 40.3 15.9 +24.4 MCI 35.9 15.1 +20.8 IBM/Lotus 36.3 15.9 +20.4 Cabletron 24.7 8.8 +15.9 Nortel 17.9 2.0 +15.9 Sprint 24.3 9.6 +14.7 Computer Associates 21.5 7.2 +14.3 Ascend 18.3 4.0 +14.3 SBC 17.5 4.0 +13.5 Digital 27.1 19.1 + 8.0 Newbridge 6.0 2.8 + 3.2 Novell 28.7 45.8 -17.1Microsoft vs. Netscape
Trying to handicap the race between Microsoft and Netscape? Well, this future Power Index may provide a key clue. Readers said Internet latecomer Bill Gates will gain five times as much power as Internet pioneer Jim Barksdale of Netscape.
Chip mogul Grove will continue to enjoy the fruits of the computing revolution, while Sun's McNealy gets a caffeine kick from Java. Cisco's Chambers,
Compaq's Pfeiffer and Oracle's Ellison are all poised to snag more power, as is WorldCom cowboy CEO Ebbers, whose Power Index of nearly 20 puts him well ahead in the power race against the leaders of AT&T, MCI and Sprint.
For Sprint's Esrey, Ascend's Ejabat, Digital's Palmer and, particularly, Novell's Schmidt, 1998 doesn't look to be the best year ever. They may be comforted by Shakespeare, who reminds us that control of our fate lies not in the stars, but in ourselves (to paraphrase).
CEOs Power up in 98 Down Index Bill Gates, Microsoft 64.6 4.0 +60.6 Andy Grove, Intel 37.5 3.6 +33.9 Scott McNealy, Sun 31.5 6.0 +25.5 Henry Schacht, Lucent 23.1 0.4 +22.7 Eckhard Pfeiffer, Compaq 23.9 2.0 +21.9 Larry Ellison, Oracle 27.1 6.0 +21.1 John Chambers, Cisco 23.5 2.4 +21.1 Bernard Ebbers, WorldCom 20.7 1.2 +19.5 Lew Platt, HP 19.9 2.8 +17.1 Eric Benhamou, 3Com 17.9 2.0 +15.9 Lou Gerstner, IBM 23.5 8.0 +15.5 Charles Lee, GTE 17.1 1.6 +15.5 Ray Smith, Bell Atlantic 16.3 1.2 +15.1 Jim Barksdale, Netscape 25.5 13.5 +12.0 David House, Bay Networks 12.4 3.6 + 8.8 Don Reed, Cabletron 10.0 2.8 + 7.2 Bert Roberts, MCI 15.5 8.4 + 7.1 Jean Monty, Nortel* 7.2 0.8 + 6.4 Charles Wang, Computer Associates 12.0 6.0 + 6.0 Robert Allen, AT&T* 17.1 11.6 + 5.5 Bill Esrey, Sprint 10.8 5.6 + 5.2 Mory Ejabat, Ascend 6.0 2.0 + 4.0 Terry Matthews, Newbridge 4.8 1.6 + 3.2 Robert Palmer, Digital 12.7 9.6 + 3.1 Eric Schmidt, Novell 19.1 22.3 - 3.2Big Winners and Losers
Finally, we asked readers to name the one company that had gained the most power or lost the most power in 1997. Here are the top choices. Microsoft's Internet forays and the growing strength of NT put the Redmond, Wash., software company on top of the gainers. Cisco, 3Com and WorldCom rode the news of mergers (or merger desires) onto the list of winners. Interestingly, Netscape makes both lists, with readers decidedly mixed on how the point company for the Internet fared in 1997.
On the down side, it's more bad news for Novell. Nearly a third of readers cited the Orem, Utah, software company as the big loser in 1997 - a trend that continues in the chart ahead. Management woes and perceived strategy gaps put AT&T on the down side, while Bay Network's standing suffered because of earlier missteps in the merger that formed the company.
Gained the most power in '97 Lost Most Power in '97 1. Microsoft 46.1% 1. Novell 30.1% 2. Cisco 13.1% 2. AT&T 4.8% 3. 3Com 7.6% 3. Bay Networks 4.4% 4. WorldCom 4.8% 3. IBM/Lotus 4.4% 5. Netscape 3.6% 3. Netscape 4.4%We also asked readers which company will grab the most power in 1998 and which will slide the most. The results are a decidedly mixed bag. Novell made both charts, which should be hopeful news to CEO Eric Schmidt: There are customers who believe the company can turn things around. Microsoft also made both sides of the ledger, with a not insignificant number of readers thinking that perhaps Java, network computers and the Internet may weaken Microsoft's stranglehold on the computing industry.
Of course, more than 45% of readers also said Gates and Company will wax ever more powerful in '98.
Readers were also split on Netscape, a vote that reflects both the company's promise and the incredible challenges it faces. AT&T's scores should serve as a wake-up call to its management, especially considering the gains WorldCom is making in customer perception.
Will gain the most power in '98 Will lose the most power 1. Microsoft 45.2% 1. Novell 22.7% 2. Novell 7.2% 2. Microsoft 9.2% 3. Cisco 6.0% 3. IBM/Lotus 5.6% 4. Netscape 4.0% 4. Netscape 4.8% 5. WorldCom 5. AT&T 4.0% 6. Sun 3.6%
