In 1997, the remote access market could be summed up in one word - booming.
In 1998, we will likely use a different word - brawling.
Consider these facts:
The 56K grab
Just when it seemed the analog modem market was frozen in a death grip among a few major vendors and that speeds had maxed out at 33.6K bit/sec, the 56K bit/sec modem hit the street. Suddenly, there was a chance for the modem pecking order to shift.Lust for profits in the huge modem market has resulted in ugly scratching and clawing among the principal players - 3Com Corp. vs. an alliance of Rockwell Semiconductor Systems and Lucent Technologies, Inc. Each side has developed its own 56K modem technology.
The problem is that Rockwell-Lucent modems and 3Com modems can't talk to each other. That eventually will get sorted out when a standard is written. But in the meantime, both sides are trying to lock down as many customers as they can.
Lawsuits have been fired back and forth over who owns rights to what aspects of the technology, paralyzing the standards process.
Despite the infighting, a standard should be set by the end of 1998, lifting users' worries that the modem at the other end of the phone line can't talk to theirs.
DSL chasing cable
Cable TV vendors are trying to make hay off their broadband hybrid coaxial cable and fiber networks by offering fast, cheap Internet access - $50 per month - and, in some cases, remote LAN access. And Microsoft Corp. is getting behind cable with healthy investments and rhetoric.That makes service providers that own copper phone networks nervous. They don't want to lose that market before they have the chance to serve up a rival service, DSL, which offers broadband access over regular phone lines.
In addition to battling each other, DSL and cable providers are battling technology. While some cable services are two-way, some call for customers to upload data over a regular phone line with a modem. Only the downloads come in at high speeds over cable. That's a hassle many users want to avoid.
With DSL, many of the regular copper phone lines over which DSL runs need to be reconditioned. That is expensive and time consuming. And the highest speed DSL gear still costs more than carriers want to pay.
As the battle picks up, expect more services to roll out toward the end of 1998. That access will translate into more offerings from multiple vendors.
ISDN no joke
ISDN finds itself in a battle with its own reputation: a great technology that no one can provision.Recent pushes by SBC Communications, Inc. in California, Ameritech Corp. and Bell Atlantic Corp. in their territories have improved services.
This is ISDN's last battle. If it doesn't blossom now, it never will.
