Funky mobile units expected

REDWOOD CITY, CA-A short supply of displays still keeps laptops from breaking $1000, but analysts expect small businesses to snap up increasing numbers of portable computing products as more people work away from the office and home.

The LCD panel shortage may worsen if the recent earthquake in Taiwan slows production there, noted analysts from International Data Corporation, speaking at IDC's PC Market Outlook conference here Wednesday.

IDC defines mobile users as people who use computers outside the office 20 percent of the time or more. Corporate computer users have long relied on mobile technology, but the biggest number of new buyers will likely be small- and medium-sized businesses and consumers, says Randy Giusto, vice president of desktop and mobile at IDC.

Design is becoming more important as laptops draw consumer interest. Apple "hit a home run" with its consumer-oriented iBook, Giusto says. "Other than the Internet, there's nothing new, different, and compelling. One way to differentiate is design." Expect to see more interesting products from manufacturers looking to emulate Apple's success.

IDC named Toshiba, IBM, Compaq, and Dell as the top-selling notebook vendors for the first half of 1999. They control more than 60 percent of the U.S. notebook market. Of the four, IDC awarded only Dell and IBM "hot" ratings, noting Dell's popular Inspiron systems and IBM's venerable ThinkPad line and strong electronic-commerce push. Sony and Apple also made the hot list, while top sellers Toshiba and Compaq received only "warm" ratings.

Not Just Notebooks

Not everyone who wants increased mobility needs a full-sized notebook computer, IDC analysts note. Sales of what IDC Calls Smart Handheld Devices, such as Palm OS and Microsoft Windows CE-based devices and smart phones, represent about 32 percent of sales in the mobile market in 1999.

While corporate users embraced notebook computers early, fears about management and security issues deter larger companies from widely adopting SHDs, says Diana Hwang, IDC research manager for smart handheld devices. But recent releases are making the devices even more attractive to consumers.

The upcoming Handspring Visor line, relatively inexpensive units that use the Palm operating system, could bring many new users, Hwang says. Other low-cost devices, more third-party software, and increased Web access should also help boost consumer interest.

Buyers continue to prefer the Palm over Microsoft Windows CE in their handheld devices, with Palm sales outnumbering CE sales five to one, IDC adds.

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