Proposed telecommunications mergers between SBC and AT&T and between Verizon and MCI will lead to a 15% price increase for large-business customers, an economist hired by competitors of SBC and Verizon said Tuesday.

The acquisitions, both announced this year, would remove AT&T and MCI as competitors of the two giant incumbent Bells, especially with telecom services provided to large office buildings, said Simon Wilkie, a former chief economist at the FCC and an economist working for the Alliance for Competition in Telecommunications (ACTel).

The mergers could effectively shut down the current wholesale market for telecom network facilities provided by AT&T, MCI and the Bells to competing telecom providers, Wilkie said. "In the wholesale market, the two largest competitors with the Bell monopoly are AT&T and MCI," he added. "By taking those out of the marketplace, you'll have a dramatic increase in the wholesale prices that have to be paid for the competitors to reach the customers."

ACTel, funded by a group of competing telecom carriers, and CompTel/ALTS, a trade group representing competitive local exchange carriers or CLECs, are asking the FCC and the U.S. Department of Justice to reject the two mergers. The two groups are not alone; in April the Consumer Federation of America, Consumers Union and U.S. Public Interest Research Group filed comments with the FCC opposing the mergers.

In May, a group called the Ad Hoc Telecommunications Users Committee, which counts 19 large U.S. companies as its members, said it objects to the mergers unless SBC and Verizon agree to some price controls. Membership of the group is secret, but the group claims to include 10 Fortune 100 companies.

Verizon, MCI and SBC disputed the ACTel study. "This material is entirely predictable, given the interests of those behind it," said Verizon and MCI in a joint statement. "It ignores the facts, tries to create some new ones, and relies on 20-year-old assumptions. The Verizon-MCI transaction will benefit customers and the economy while allowing the new combination to compete effectively in a changing marketplace. Nobody can 'control' this new marketplace -- there are many domestic and international players."

SBC, in a filing to the FCC in May, said that preliminary information from Wilkie underestimated the number of direct CLEC connections to office buildings in SBC territory. "These numbers are faulty," said SBC spokesman Michael Balmoris.

The IDG News Service is a Network World affiliate.