Jury selection starts Monday in federal court in the insider trading trial of former Qwest CEO Joseph Nacchio.

Nacchio, who joined Qwest in 1997, left the carrier five years ago after he sold $100 million worth of stock while talking up the company's prospects during the telecom bubble. That, in essence, is the case against Nacchio: that he knew Qwest was about to fall on hard times and he was selling out while the stock was riding high, while all the while knowing a plunge was imminent.

Nacchio resigned in June 2002, a year after his last Qwest stock sale. The Department of Justice began its criminal investigation of Nacchio a month after he resigned, and a federal grand jury brought 42 counts of insider trading against him in December 2005.

In that three-and-a-half-year period, Qwest barely staved off bankruptcy and restated two years of earnings, costing it $2.5 billion in revenue.

Nacchio's defense hinges on personal optimism on Qwest's fortunes through access to classified information on federal national-security contracts he thought Qwest would win. Disclosure of what Nacchio claims to have known could prove tricky as federal national-security agencies are reportedly looking to limit the amount of classified information to be revealed at his trial.

One analyst says Nacchio's defense may have some teeth.

"I remember meeting with him around that time and he had come back from several government meetings in D.C., and was very jazzed about what the CIA and different organizations were doing to improve the safety of the Internet," says Donna Jaegers, a telecom services analyst at Janco Partners in Denver. "But the trial will probably hinge on the testimony of some his lieutenants and how believable they are because [Nacchio was counseled] that the guidance they had out there was too high.

"Joe Nacchio is a very convincing salesperson so I'm sure he will do his best to present his side of the story," Jaegers says.

If convicted, Nacchio reportedly could face anywhere from 10 years to life in prison.

Nacchio and six other Qwest executives also face charges from the Securities and Exchange Commission alleging financial fraud. This is expected to be heard after the federal trial.

Nacchio's trial follows the convictions of several corporate executives for fraud and/or insider trading. In telecom, Worldcom CEO Bernard Ebbers is serving a 25-year sentence for conspiracy and fraud.