IT industry watchers say CIOs planning for what could become a U.S. economic recession forced down forecasts of Americas IT spending in 2008.

Forrester Research Monday announced it had revised its earlier forecast for a 4.6% increase in U.S. purchases of IT goods and services down to a more modest 2.8%. The research firm says it based the updated numbers on newly available economic data that points toward a slight recession in the United States and will impact IT spending for more than half of this year.

"The U.S. remains the largest single market for IT goods and services, so it is no surprise that the global market is heavily affected by what happens in the U.S.," said Forrester vice president Andrew Bartels, in press release. "While it is by no means certain that the U.S. economy will in fact experience a recession, the risks of one are high enough to justify a more conservative outlook for the IT market."

Forrester bases its research on the health and size of the IT market. For 2008, the research firm says the global market for IT purchases is estimated to reach $1.7 trillion. Last year, global IT buying grew by 12%, and U.S. IT purchases increased 6.2%. This year global IT purchases are expected to grow 6%. And U.S. share of the spend in global IT purchases market is anticipated to shrink down to 33%, from about 40% in 2003. But the United States will continue to dominate the software spending market with 44% of the share, Forrester reports.

Along with the United States, Forrester also forecasts that Canada and Latin America will see spending slow. While U.S. IT purchasing will grow slightly to $552 billion in 2008, spending on IT in Canada and Latin America will reach $126 billion. Forrester reports the growth is a respectable 8% increase for the regions, but still a significant drop off from between 13% and 17% growth from 2004 to 2007.

The Americas will see a spending slowdown, but the global market will continue to see growth in areas such as software, outsourcing services and more modestly in communications and computer equipment. Global purchases of software products will increase by 8% and IT consulting and outsourcing services is expected to grow by 9% in 2008. Communications equipment will see modest growth of 3%, down from 12% growth in 2007. And computer equipment purchases are also less than last year's 12% uptake with a 4% increase in 2008.