Global telecom is bright spot amid tech industry woes

HONOLULU, HAWAII -- Microsoft and Google may have reported less than stellar financial results this week, but telecommunications companies worldwide are holding their own, according to reports from the 31st Pacific Telecommunications Council conference.

Several thousand telecom tech professionals from across the Pacific hemisphere attended this year's conference, and companies reported that telecommunications, especially at the wholesale level, is riding through the economic storms with relative stability.

Presenters pointed out that information and communications technology (ICT) and services have become more deeply integrated into the business and social practices of companies and individuals. That makes these commitments among the last to suffer cutbacks. Not only that, new markets and applications are still coming on line.

In China, telecommunications use continues to expand, though growth rates have slowed. Newly reorganized China Unicom reported that there are now 990 million phone subscribers in China, with 640 million mobile and 350 million fixed line subscribers. There are 298 million Internet subscribers, including 80 million broadband and 70 million mobile Internet subscribers.

Japanese presenters said that nation has 103 million mobile subscribers, with 86% on 3G phones, a higher percentage than any other nation. A new Japanese company, EMOBILE, is offering 7.2Mbps mobile Internet at a flat rate maximum of $50 USD per month. Even in Japan this is a breakthrough in price/performance levels.

Ken Zita, a PTC officer and telecommunications analyst, added that "the arrival of very high-speed and all-IP mobile networks is imminent. So-called 4G will transform markets and the mobile services paradigm worldwide." He noted that Long Term Evolution (LTE) field tests achieving "ultrabroadband" speeds of 160-250Mbps downstream, 50 Mbps upstream. Some are forecasting commercial shipments beginning in the second half of 2009.

U.S. lags

The picture in the United States is not so rosy, and researchers have hinted at some reasons. The PTC's prestigious Jussawalla Research Prize award went this year to Professor Rob Frieden of Penn State University. Frieden’s paper was titled: "The Spin in Broadband Statistics: How the FCC Makes False Assessments of Next Generation Network Deployment in the United States." 

According to Frieden's analysis, the FCC has consistently skewed its statistical reporting to exaggerate the availability of broadband communications throughout the United States.

For example, the FCC had been using the relatively low threshold of 200Kbps in one-direction as its definition of broadband. Although that was increased last year to 768Kbps, it’s still below the 1990s industry view of broadband as a T-1 rate of 1.544Mbps. In contrast, global leaders Korea and Japan provide widespread broadband access at rates of 100Mbps.

Also, according to Frieden's report, the FCC counts an entire ZIP code as having broadband as long as there's one broadband connection. Since connections to school districts through the E-Rate program cover most areas in the country, the FCC considers those areas to have broadband, even though high-speed connections may not be available to the average consumer or business.