Digital TV: Promise vs. Reality

Today about 1700 television stations across the United States will make the switch from analog to digital signals. The switch follows a year of heavy advertising, exhaustive reporting, local programs to help elderly residents deal with the switch, and a converter box coupon shortage that delayed the whole enterprise by another four months.

While the large majority of U.S. households are ready for the switch, as many as 1.75 million to 2.2 million people could be watching a blanket of snow in the wee hours of Saturday morning. The Federal Communications Commission has 4000 operators on standby ready to answer questions from confused residents, and has set up digital TV demonstration centers in major urban centers, as well as a Digital TV conversion Website.

So, after years of hype, the future of television has arrived. But is this what we signed up for? I've scoured the historical record to see what tech analysts were saying as early as ten years ago about the future of digital television. Read on to see what tech pundits got right and what they got wrong, during the time when AOL was king, Apple's future was still in doubt and the cost of an HDTV cost more per square foot than an office in downtown Washington, DC.

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Today about 1700 television stations across the United States will make the switch from analog to digital signals. The switch follows a year of heavy advertising, exhaustive reporting, local programs to help elderly residents deal with the switch, and a converter box coupon shortage that delayed the whole enterprise by another four months.

While the large majority of U.S. households are ready for the switch, as many as 1.75 million to 2.2 million people could be watching a blanket of snow in the wee hours of Saturday morning. The Federal Communications Commission has 4000 operators on standby ready to answer questions from confused residents, and has set up digital TV demonstration centers in major urban centers, as well as a Digital TV conversion Website.

So, after years of hype, the future of television has arrived. But is this what we signed up for? I've scoured the historical record to see what tech analysts were saying as early as ten years ago about the future of digital television. Read on to see what tech pundits got right and what they got wrong, during the time when AOL was king, Apple's future was still in doubt and the cost of an HDTV cost more per square foot than an office in downtown Washington, DC.

What They Got Wrong

Continuous Adverti sing and Extra Screen Width: On January 29, 1999 the Washington Post ran an interview with Rob Pegoraro, WAPO personal technology editor. Pegoraro predicted that cable companies might reduce the width of your TV viewing experience, and run continuous ads in the free space similar to what you see on a web page. Pegoraro also suggested that cable companies would allow you to buy extra screen width for sporting events and other special programming.

Cable Domination: On November 1, 1998, Business Week discussed the future of digital television and HDTV. The magazine posited that digital TV would turn the tech world "upside down." They said cable companies looked well positioned to weather the digital TV storm, and the big losers might be Dell, Compaq and Intel. While cable still dominates the living room, the development of services like Hulu and Boxee make it clear that cable's lock on the American living room is about to get rocked in a very big way.

Web Browsing on TV: Business week also suggested the digital TV revolution could bring about the end of the PC. In the article, Business Week asked, "who needs a Pentium PC if simpler, cheaper appliances let you browse the Web or videoconference with friends on a giant high-resolution screen?"

While bringing Internet to the TV has been tried many times, it has never taken off. People have stuck with their trusty computers, and that is unlikely to change any time soon.

Enhanced Interactivity: Wired ran an article in January 1999 discussing how the Corporation for Public Broadcasting was embracing digital television. At the time, CPB's President and CEO Robert T. Coonrod foresaw a time when viewers would see enhanced interactivity. Coonrod pointed to the classical music program "Great Performances," imagining a time when people would watch the broadcast of the symphony from different angles, follow the written score on TV, or even mute a specific instrument and play along with the symphony.

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