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Outlook 2010

What's hot in the high-tech hype machine?

From cloud computing to net neutrality, hype can help and hurt

By Tim Greene, Network World
January 04, 2010 12:01 AM ET
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Outlook hype

It can be hard to separate the high-tech hype from reality, especially when the hype-machine at times is so loud.

What we have done here is turned down the din to give you an idea of what technologies are over-hyped and what you should really pay attention to.

Cloud computing

Hype Status: Climbing
There's no doubt cloud computing is here to stay. It's well established and provides quantifiable financial benefits so compelling that businesses are leaping into using the technology. Private clouds require less hardware than conventional client-server architectures and, through their use of virtual machines, make even more efficient use of the physical servers.

These benefits are enhanced further with varying types of public cloud services such as Amazon's EC2 and Google Apps that remove the capital investment companies make in order to set up cloud services. With compute charges of 40 cents an hour, no capital costs, quick setup times and quick teardown times, these services provide attractive test and development environments.

The downside of cloud services in broad terms is that they are built and maintained by third parties, and there are multiple ways they could be insecure. Data could be lost through failures within the cloud. Data be could compromised through attacks from outside. Providers could be legally forced to turn over business data that would untouchable be if held in private networks. The list goes on and on.

So the reason to watch cloud computing over the next year is not to determine whether it's viable technology but how the industry will address its shortcomings, which it will. In the meantime businesses that use public or private clouds need to evaluate risk and determine whether it is worth it. Often, this means keeping certain classes of data out of clouds and letting clouds handle less sensitive data that, if compromised, won't have devastating effects on corporate goals.

Network neutrality

Hype status: Under hyped
This isn't a technology per se, but it is a regulatory issue that could have a big impact on the price businesses pay for Internet services, and that will come to a head sometime in the first half of 2010.

The goal of Federal Communications Commission hearings on regulations is to preserve an open Internet that is ruled by principles that allow sending and receiving all lawful content; use of all lawful applications and services; use of all lawful devices that don't harm the network; access to all network, application, service and content providers; and that ensure there is no discrimination against particular lawful content, applications, services and devices. It also calls for ISPs to reveal network management practices that are necessary but that might limit the other principles.

ISPs protest that net neutrality would limit their ability to charge more for premium services that provide them with the financial incentive to upgrade their networks to handle increasing demands for capacity. The result of net neutrality rules would either boost the price everyone pays for Internet access or it would do away with flat fees for Internet service. Instead, users would be charged per byte of data they send and receive.

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