Cloud Computing's Three Revolutions: Part 3

I've gotten a lot of feedback on parts one and two of this three-part series on "The Three Revolutions of Cloud Computing." This series is based on my perspective that cloud computing represents the next major platform shift in computing, and will undoubtedly impose as much change as previous shifts like client/server or the rise of the Web. In parts one and two I focused on the changes cloud computing will cause in IT operations and application funding patterns. Now I'd like to turn to the changes cloud computing will cause in applications - and, to be blunt - those changes will be enormous.

[For timely cloud computing news and expert analysis, see CIO.com's Cloud Computing Drilldown section. ]

If you look at most application architectures today, it's clear that these assumptions underlie their creation and deployment:

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I've gotten a lot of feedback on parts one and two of this three-part series on "The Three Revolutions of Cloud Computing." This series is based on my perspective that cloud computing represents the next major platform shift in computing, and will undoubtedly impose as much change as previous shifts like client/server or the rise of the Web. In parts one and two I focused on the changes cloud computing will cause in IT operations and application funding patterns. Now I'd like to turn to the changes cloud computing will cause in applications - and, to be blunt - those changes will be enormous.

[For timely cloud computing news and expert analysis, see CIO.com's Cloud Computing Drilldown section. ]

If you look at most application architectures today, it's clear that these assumptions underlie their creation and deployment:

• Compute resources are expensive and difficult to obtain, so the number of applications must be limited, with only the most critical applications being deployed. • Compute resources are static, so application architectures can assume a stable application topology, with compute resources rarely joining and almost never leaving an application deployment topology. • The responsibility for compute infrastructure provisioning and modification lies with IT operations, so application developers need only focus on functionality and rely on others to manage the infrastructure.

However, those assumptions are no longer appropriate in a cloud computing world. As I explored in the first part of this post, cloud computing will alter - even disrupt - IT operations practices. The "resources on-demand" nature of cloud computing means process re-engineering for IT operations. The new model is "resources when I want, as much as I want, how I want." It's important not to underestimate how liberating this will be for application groups. When there isn't a lot of organizational overhead to obtaining resources, app developers will - surprise - use more resources - a *lot* more resources. We haven't yet begun to understand the scale of resource demand as application groups learn to work in an unconstrained environment.

In the second part of this series, I examined the change in IT costs that cloud computing's metered pricing and lower costs will cause. Put succinctly, the opex-based nature of cloud computing costs will encourage experimentation and allow many more applications to be deployed.

So the combined effect of these changes means that two very strong friction points for applications - resource provisioning and funding - will dwindle. What does this mean for applications?

Price elasticity means apps explode. While there is lots of controversy on this topic, my viewpoint is clear - cloud computing is cheaper than what went before. And I expect that classical economics will hold - higher consumption of goods as they get less expensive. Also, the "pay by the drink" nature of cloud computing will only amplify this trend, as it only costs dollars to get started on an application. Certainly this phenomenon has been our experience - every client we've worked with starts with one application and then starts finding others to do once the ease of getting an app going becomes clear. I would not be surprised to see a 10X increase in the number of applications running in most organizations. And the low cost and ease of scaling means that the deployed topology of applications will increase as well. Horizontally-scaled, multi-tier applications with 50 or 100 individual virtual machines won't be anomalies in the near future.