iPad 5 rumor rollup for the period ending Feb. 27

Predictions for when Apple iPad 5 will emerge are all over the map

The iOSphere resolutely ignored the Lessons of History and embraced, yet again, the conviction that iPad accessory manufacturers know what's really happening with the iPad 5 tablet computer.

And what's really happening is that it will be announced in June. Or September-October. Or April, or March. Sometime, for sure.

You read it here second.

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Yarrow apparently remains hopeful, too, based on the information from Stevie Wonder. "The next iPad is expected to mimic the design of the iPad Mini. It will be thinner and lighter. It will also have a smaller overall size, while maintaining the same 9.7-inch screen."

AppleBitch links to three of the Ali Baba cases, convinced that their existence is "lending support to the initial report that the iPad 5 would have a significantly different form factor when compared to the current generation iPad models."

Or as MacRumors' Eric Slivka more confidently asserted "[W]ith rumors, rear shell photos, and now cases all consistently pointing toward an iPad mini-like design for the fifth-generation iPad, evidence for a significant overhaul of the full-size iPad is becoming stronger."

The more rumors about something, the more likely it is that the rumors are true. Q.E.D.

Forget June: iPad 6 will be released in September or October

Or maybe they can be.

Eric Chiou, an analyst with market intelligence firm TrendForce, shared his iPad 5 predictpectations with the world, which to be honest sound pretty familiar.

As repeated at MobileAndApps, they describe a Next iPad that will:

+ use the display technologies introduced with iPad mini, coupled with a thinner exterior bezel, to reduce the full-sized tablet's thickness, overall size, and weight [for more details, see "iPad 5 will have GF2 DITO OMG IMHO screen structure" section in "iPad 5 rumor rollup for the week ending Feb. 6"]

+ ship in Q3 of this year

+ possibly have a lower price "because of the display components," according to MobileAndApps

+ cause the iPad 2 to be retired

BGR also picked up on Chiou's predictions, with Zach Epstein suggesting Chiou's description of an "extensive overhaul" of the full-sized iPad is essential to restore consumer interest in a product that "a number of industry watchers believe" past its prime. Epstein is repeating what's become an Internet meme: that sales of iPad mini have already outstripped those of the full-sized tablet, and this proves that larger tablets are passé or Apple's product strategy is failing or something equally apocalyptic.

But most of those "analyses" seem based on nothing more than guesswork: Apple doesn't break out sales for the mini and full-sized models. In the 11 quarters in which iPads have been sold, three quarters show a decrease in iPad unit sales compared to the previous quarter. All others show sequential increases. In the most recent quarter (Apple's Q1 Fiscal 2013), the company sold 22.8 million tablets in both form factors. Some analysts have estimated that that number splits more or less evenly between the two sizes. If that could be confirmed, it would represent the first time that full-sized iPad sales decreased for two consecutive quarters.

Forget June! It's April, damnit!

This is based on a recent mathematical analysis by investment analyst Gene Munster, of Piper Jaffray, and repeated by sites such as AppleInsider. 

Here's poster Katie Marsal's quote from Munster's Note to Investors: "We believe that looking at the history of time between Apple product launch events suggests that the company will introduce something new in March or April."