Network World, 1/4/99

After determining whether the network companies and CEOs gained or lost power in the previous year, we asked readers to look into their crystal balls and predict whether the vendors and their leaders will get stronger or weaker in the year ahead. The Power Predictor Index is the difference between the percentage of readers who said the company or executive would gain power and the percentage who said they would lose power.

Hyperlinked names bring you to more information about the company or executive.

Companies

                     '99 Power  '98        Gain/
                     Predictor  Index      loss
                     Index

Lucent                54.8%     49.4%      +5.4%
Intel                 52.4%     59.3%      -6.9%
Cisco                 51.2%     49%        +2.2%
3Com                  49.6%     42.6%      +7%
Microsoft             47.2%     72.8%     -25.6%
MCI WorldCom*         46%       20.8%/    +25.2%/
                                31.5%     +14.5%
AT&T                  40.8%     24.4%     +16.4%
Oracle                40.8%     34.6%      +6.2%
Compaq                36.4%     34.2%      +2.2%
IBM                   35.6%     20.4%     +15.2%
Hewlett-Packard       30.8%     39.4%      -8.6%
Sprint                30.8%     14.7%     +16.1%
Sun                   30%       41.8%     -11.8%
Nortel                28.4%     15.9%     +12.5%
Bell Atlantic         26.4%     29.5%      -3.1%
Network Associates**  21.2%     NA         NA
SBC Communications    19.6%     13.5%      +6.1%
Novell                16.8%    -17.1%     +33.9%
BellSouth**           16%       NA         NA
Ascend                14.8%     14.3%      +0.5%
Computer Associates   14%       14.3%      -0.3%
US WEST**             12%       NA         NA
GTE                   10%       28.7%     -18.7%
Netscape               8.4%     25.1%     -16.7%
Newbridge              6.8%      3.2%      +3.6%
Cabletron              6.4%     15.9%      -9.5%

CEOs

                     '99 Power  '98        Gain/
                     Predictor  Index      loss
                     Index

John Chambers/
Cisco                 40.8%     21.1%      +19.7%
Craig Barrett*/
Intel                 35.2%     NA          NA
Mike Armstrong*/
AT&T                  34%       NA          NA
Rich McGinn*/
Lucent                33.6%     NA          NA
Bernie Ebbers/
MCI WorldCom          31.6%     19.5%      +12.1%
Larry Ellison/
Oracle                31.6%     21.1%      +10.5%
Lou Gerstner/
IBM                   28.4%     15.5%      +12.9%
Bill Gates/
Microsoft             28.4%     60.6%      -32.2%
Eric Benhamou/
3Com                  27.6%     15.9%      +11.7%
Scott McNealy/
Sun                   25.6%     25.5%       -0.1%
Lew Platt/
H-P                   24.4%     17.1%       +7.3%
Eckhard Pfeiffer/
Compaq                24%       21.9%       +2.1%
Eric Schmidt/
Novell                20.4%     -3.2%      +23.6%
John Roth*/
Nortel                20%       NA          NA
Bill Esrey/
Sprint                18.8%      5.2%      +13.6%
Ivan Seidenberg*/
Bell Atlantic         16.8%     NA          NA
Bill Larson/
Network Associates**  14.8%     NA          NA
Ed Whitacre/
SBC                   14%        6.8%       +7.2%
Mory Ejabat/
Ascend                12.4%      4%         +8.4%
Charles Wang/
Computer Associates   12%        5.2%       +6.8%
Duane Ackerman/
BellSouth**           11.6%     NA           NA
Charles Lee/
GTE                    8%       15.5%       -7.5%
Jim Barksdale/
Netscape               7.6%     12%         -4.4%
Sol Trujillo/
US WEST**              6.4%     NA           NA
Terry Matthews/
Newbridge              5.6%      3.2%       +2.4%
Craig Benson*/
Cabletron              0.8%     NA           NA

Winners

• Once again, the big winner is Novell. Readers clearly expect big things in 1999 from the company, which pulled itself out of the basement since last year.
• Look who's topping the list of companies expected to gain power in 1999 - yes, that's right, it's Lucent. Not Intel (No. 2), not Cisco (No. 3), not 3Com (No. 4), not Microsoft (No. 5). Lucent.
• AT&T is seen by readers as picking up even more steam in 1999, as is Nortel with Bay Networks under its belt.
• Hail to Eric Schmidt. Readers expect the Novell CEO to gain a great deal of power in the year to come, boosting his Power Predictor Index by a whopping 23.6 points.
• Things also look good for Cisco's Chambers, whose nearly 20 point increase in the Power Predictor Index put him on top of the heap of power gainers for '99
• AT&T's new CEO Mike Armstrong showed up nicely at third place in the chart, but his score is even more impressive than it appears. His Power Predictor Index of 34 crushes that of his predecessor, Bob Allen, who tallied a measly 5.5 Power Predictor score last year.
• Good news also or MCI WorldCom's Bernie Ebbers, IBM's Lou Gerstner and Rich McGinn of Lucent, who came up 4th on the list.

• Microsoft is the big loser, falling to No. 5 in the ranking of companies expected to pick up power in 1999. That's thanks to a more-than-25-point decline in its Power Predictor Index.
• Netscape? More of the same - bad news, that is. Look at where it falls on the chart. Look at that Power Predictor Index decline.
• GTE also took a big hit in the Predictor Index, while Hewlett-Packard, Intel and Sun all dropped as well.
• Oh, Bill, what's going on? You fell to No. 8 on the list of executives expected to gain power in 1999, thanks to a 32 - yes, 32 - point decline in your Power Predictor Index. Maybe you better redouble your efforts in the enterprise.
• Readers don't think Charles Lee of GTE is going to have such a powerful 1999 either, and they also yawned when thinking about Sun's Scott McNealy and Netscape's Jim Barksdale.